Hillary Clinton defeated Barack Obama in the Indiana delegate hunt on Tuesday, 38 to 34. Add on the committed super delegates and Clinton has a 42-39 Indiana lead. It comes despite her narrow 14,000 vote victory over Barack Obama, who carried only nine of Indiana’s 92 counties. Clinton picked up four delegates in the 8th and 9th CDs; three delegates in the 1st, 2nd, and 6th; and two delegates in the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th. Obama picked up 4 delegates in the 7th CD; three delegates in the 1st and 2nd; and two delegates in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th and 9th CDs. The two candidates split the statewide delegates 8 apiece, said Indiana Democratic Chairman Dan Parker. Clinton also holds a lead in the party leader/elected officials by a 5 to 4 margin. "The three districts that the Democrats won to help take back Congress were won by Hillary Clinton," said Parker of districts held by U.S. Reps. Baron Hill, Brad Ellsworth and Joe Donnelly. "Two of them overwhelmningly." He was talking about the 8th and 9th CDs. Clinton got 61 percent of the vote in the 9th, represented by Hill and once by former congressman Lee Hamilton, both who backed Obama. Parker added, "Obama lost this race in his own backyard. In the First, he only carried it 53-47 percent." In the 6th CD, Clinton carried 59 percent of the vote. Parker will have one additional delegate to award Clinton, who he endorsed, at the Indiana Democratic Convention, which will likely go to former Gov. Joe Kernan. Once that happens, Clinton would have a 43-39 lead. Donnelly, Ellsworth and U.S. Rep. Pete Viscklosky are still uncommitted. Clinton is shown here at her victory rally at the Murat in Indianapolis Tuesday night. (HPI Photo by A. Walker Shaw)

INDIANAPOLIS - Virginia Dill McCarty was the first Hoosier woman to run for governor three decades ago. State Sen. Vi Simpson was a candidate in 2003. Soon thereafter, Kathy Davis was appointed to be the first lieutenant govenor later that year. In 2004, Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman was the first to be elected. In 2006, State Sen. Sue Landske became assistant Senate President Pro Tempore, Sen. Connie Lawson became majority floor leader and Sen. Teresa Lubbers became assistant majority floor leader.

On Tuesday, the Hoosier glass ceiling shattered with Hillary Clinton’s Democratic presidential primary win and Jill Long Thompson becoming the first female gubernatorial nominee. It came five years after former IUPUI pollster Brian Vargus questioned whether Hoosiers were ready for a female governor.

The United Steelworkers made up this poster featuring the likeness of Jill Long Thompson,Indiana's first female gubernatorial nominee. (HPI Photo by A. Walker Shaw)

After the defeat of Senate President Pro Tempore Robert D. Garton in May 2006, a block of six female Republican senators — Lawson, Lubbers, Landske, Beverly Gard, Vaneta Becker and Patricia Miller — cut a deal, throwing their support behind David Long of Fort Wayne. Thus, the new Senate power structure took on a decidedly female touch.

Thompson brings this gender power drive into a new realm with her nomination Tuesday night, becoming the first non-white male gubernatorial nominee in Indiana’s 192 year history who is not a white male. What does it mean to her personally and for Hoosiers?

Thompson told HPI, "Any time a door is opened for one, it is for many. To deny rights to a few is to deny rights to all. The more we recognize individuals, the less we categorize people into groups, the more we are allowing the God-given talents of each person to be contributed to better society. I feel very good but very blest with this particular accomplishment and this opportunity."

Thompson lives on a farm near Argos. She turned down the chance to become Frank O’Bannon’s running mate in 1996, explaining that she had just been confirmed by the U.S. Senate as undersecretary for the U.S. Agriculture Department. She was asked about the Vargus quote from five years before. Were Hoosiers ready for a female governor then? Before then? Now?  "Hoosiers are ready for the best and strongest leadership an individual can provide," she said.

Here’s the rest of our phone interview that occurred Wednesday afternoon shortly before her opponent, Jim Schellinger, conceded in a phone call to her.

HPI: It seemed like you had a pretty decent lead and it looks as if you withstood a vigorous challenge from your opponent.

Thompson: What happened yesterday? I won.

HPI: Any details?

Thompson: Among the voters who were paying attention to the gubernatorial race I have somewhere between a 10 and 15 point lead. But among those voters who came out to vote in the presidential but were not paying attention to the gubernatorial, the dropoff from presidential to gubernatorial was about 10 percent, but most of the polls showed that they voted for the first name on the ballot. They sort or randomly picked.

HPI: Do you know what kind of Republican and independent crossover?

Thompson: I do not have an analysis at this point, though I suspect there will be one. I don’t intend to put any resources into that.

HPI: What issues delivered this election for you?

Thompson: I think my proven ability on job creation, having served as undersecretary for rural development at USDA.

HPI: What are we likely to see in the next six weeks before the Indiana Democratic Convention?

Thompson: Continue to travel the state and continue to working on finding the strongest lieutenant governor candidate I can find.

HPI: What will the LG criteria be?

Thompson: Major criterion is leadership on economic development.

HPI: Does geography matter?

Thompson: Geography is a factor for consideration but ultimately it’s important to find the best qualified person to do the job, And someone who will be committed to campaigning very hard every day. Not just to win, but to work very hard for eight years to rebuild Indiana’s economy?

HPI: How do you unify the party, particularly with the state party favoring Jim Schellinger?

Thompson: We are very unified. The chairman called me and we’ve been playing phone tag but he left me a lovely message on my voice mail congratulating me.

HPI: Has your opponent conceded yet?

Thompson: I have not heard from him but I suspect he and I will talk in the very near future.

HPI: What can we expect in a race with Gov. Daniels?

Thompson: It will be very issues oriented and I will continue to travel and listen to voters and talk to voters and express my vision for the future of Indiana.

HPI: Can you talk about your Lake County support which put you over the top, at least sequentially?

Thompson: The Steelworkers were instrumental in winning this race. I carried Warrick County, which is a county where Steelworkers are strong. Allen County, Lake County, Porter County, LaPorte County. I think the Steelworkers were critical, but I think Sheriff Roy Dominguez’s endorsement as well as Sen. Earline Rogers, Sen. Karen Talian, Rep. Linda Lawson, Rep. Charlie Brown helped.

HPI: Where is Gov. Daniels most vulunerable?

Thompson: The selling of the state assets; the privatizing. The economy. We lost 16,200 jobs in March. The unemployment trust fund was $1 billion when he came in and now it’s down to $100 million. I also think our high school dropout rate, our education policy, and our health care policy are below national average.

INDIANAPOLIS - Thank you, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Love, Barack Obama. Obama ended the worst two weeks of his presidential run in Indiana with a razor-thin loss to Hillary Clinton. His salve came earlier in the evening in North Carolina where he trounced Clinton and it stands to open the superdelegate flood gates in the coming days. But the fact remains that Rev. Wright couldn’t have picked a worse time to step out and get some national pub, a situation seeded and exploited by the Clinton campaign.

Barack Obama probably would have won Indiana if it weren't for his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright showing up during the Hoosier campaign. (HPI Photo by A. Walker Shaw)

Obama had to endure not only that, but waves of Republicans and independents crossed over to vote in Democratic primaries. There was goading by conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh, who urged Republicans to create "chaos" by extending the Democratic nomination process to August. The vote totals swelled for a number of legislative Democratic candidates in extremely Republican areas such as Goshen and North Manchester. In the April 29 Howey-Gauge Poll, 10 percent of those Republicans intended to vote in the Democratic primary and Clinton led among that group 50-44 percent. CNN reported Wednesday that 10 percent of the Republicans actually crossed over, but 23 percent of the total were independents. CNN political analyst Bill Schneider characterized the "Rush Limbaugh effect" as "slightly measureable." But when the plurality was just 14,000 votes, it might have been enough to throw the race to Hillary Clinton. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said Limbaugh "had a clear factor in the outcome." At the Howey-Gauge Poll Briefing, we said Republicans might determine the race and we believe you can find that impact in the 14,000 margin.

The single largest story following the time Howey-Gauge was in the field was the Rev. Wright story.  Voters who made up their mind on Election Day or felt this was an important factor in deciding for whom to vote strongly broke for Clinton," said Howey-Gauge pollster Holly Davis, adding that  28 percent of voters felt this was an "important story" and those voters supported Clinton 71 percent  to Obama’s 29 percent;  46 percent of voters who made up their mind on election day say the Rev. Wright story was either very or somewhat important and they broke for Clinton 71% to 29% for Obama.

Obama had to withstand the organization of U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh, who brought along the Democratic Party establishment and 40 county chairs. Even so, many in the Clinton inner camp were expecting a victory in the 5 to 8 percent range, rather than the 50.9 to 49.1 percent margin. In tandem with the North Carolina loss and a wash among the delegates, the Clinton campaign came off its Indiana victory on its heels. She really needed a decisive win that could have become a sequence if she could win big in West Virginia and Kentucky.

The Clinton family made more than 100 campaign stops in Indiana and won a tiny 22,000 vote victory. (HPI Photo by A. Walkher Shaw)

What cut into the Hoosier margin that Clinton so desperately needed? One was the federal gas tax holiday. In the 15 years that HPI has been publishing, we have never seen a public policy position so widely panned as that one. Scores of stories in Indiana newspapers and TV stations ridiculed the idea. Most of these comments were derisive. In 2000, there wasn’t nearly the negative reaction to the gas tax suspension. That could be attributed to the fact that it had been 21 years (1979) since the last fuel shock. This time, it’s been coming at us in increments over the last eight years. Most Hoosiers realize there’s a bigger problem that vastly transcends Hillary Clinton’s pandering.

Another is that Sen. Lugar has been very vocal on energy security issues over the past several years. While this probably wouldn’t poll substantially, there is a growing awareness. Lugar has done scores of pressers at E-85 gas stations around the state, conducts an energy conference at Purdue University, got coverage in March on the EnerDel Corporation’s lithium-ion battery, and has spoken to many Rotary and Kiwanis clubs (among others) about linking energy to national security. So Hoosiers were a bit wiser when this issue came up this time.

Despite these pressures, and to their credit, both campaigns managed to run a fairly clean race here. There were few gaffes and little in the way of inflammatory and divisive headlines. The candidates and their surrogates branched through the countryside to talk about issues, about their hopes and plans for the state and the nation. The leadership of the Indiana Democratic Party, particularly Sen. Evan Bayh, held to the promise that our state would be different.

The state’s most influential Democrats gathered at the annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner Sunday night at the Indianapolis Convention Center to learn that the dueling campaigns had re-energized their party. More than 200,000 new voters were added to the rolls in the course of the contest. Throughout the state, Democrats reported high levels of volunteer turnout and activism. And during lengthy appearances by both candidates, those in attendance were brought to their feet by oratory and rhetoric that focused not on divisive tactics, but on the key issues of our day: Iraq, the economy, health care reform, the escalating price of gasoline, housing and more. Each candidate delivered stirring, 30-minute speeches that described a vision for country and party, hoping to sway undecided voters and convince Democratic powerbrokers looking to back a winner against John McCain this November.

For many voters, the choice between Obama and Clinton came down to matters of the heart. Little separates the dueling campaigns in terms of major issues. Each worked to deliver a narrative that would touch voter loyalties concerning race, gender, class and political philosophy. The senator from New York sent husband Bill and daughter Chelsea on a grueling barnstorm throughout the state to remind Hoosiers of the days when a Clinton last ruled the White House. She played on union endorsements to boost her stature with more conservative (or less liberal) working-class, blue-collar workers that eventually helped her carry the day. Obama sought to inspire by promising to change Washington. In speech after speech, the Illinois senator promised Democrats that he would reach across the aisle to fashion remedies for challenges long unsolved in the nation’s capital. And he appealed to those who have suffered or are tired of the country’s racial divide.

Unfortunately, the Indiana Democratic Party’s racial fault lines were exposed. Comments from state legislators, fundraisers, party activists and other journalists revealed that a number of Hoosier Democrats simply could not muster a vote for an African-American. And this, in a party that has carried 80 to 90 percent of the African-American vote in gubernatorial, senatorial, congressional, legislative and municipal races.

We cannot remember another political candidate who had to answer for his pastor in a political context. In Indiana this spring, it played a role in who won an election, though it might not have shifted the course of history. And, for the record, by Wednesday afternoon, Limbaugh was blowing out of a different orafice, telling his listeners he now thinks Obama will be the easier Democrat to beat.

While Clinton and Bayh could claim victory - as tiny as it was and, ironically, coming about thanks to Rush Limbaugh of all people - when the Clintons breeze through, they often leave a trail of carnage in their wake. It may continue in Kentucky and West Virginia with Clinton touting her ability to attract white votes in USA Today. In Indiana, while they inspired many Democratic supporters, they also exposed the party’s tangled wiring on race and class. 

INDIANAPOLIS - When it became clear in early March that the Indiana presidential primary was going to have high impact, we analyzed "Evan Bayh’s predicament" of trying to forge a Hillary Clinton win in a state that had often been hostile to that Democratic family. Howey Politics Indiana conducted this interview with U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh Wednesday afternoon, a day after he helped Hillary Clinton eke out a win in Indiana.

HPI: What were the keys to victory for Hillary last night?

Bayh: Two-fold. This was unlike any other state so far this year. She’s had some good wins, but they were in states where she started off ahead: Pennsylvania by 20; Ohio by 15 or 20; and hung on to win. Here she started off with the Obama strategic memo which ended up in the press back in March, which has been extremely accurate. They’ve only missed two states. And they through some demographic analysis predicted they would win Indiana by 7. Interestingly, Hillary’s first poll eight weeks ago had her down by 8. So that was kind of in the same field. She was able to pick up 10 percent and that’s the first time she’s started off behind and come back to win. She had been way ahead in New Hampshire, fell behind for that week after Iowa, but came back to win. She was behind in our state from the get-go. We felt good about it from that standpoint. To move from 10 points back against a formidable opponent who is out-spending you 3-to-1, well, that’s a good piece of work. The keys to victory? It involved the candidate starting with what she stood for, which is that focus on the middle class economic issues.

U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh's organization put the gloves on for Hillary Clinton in Indiana. He is introducing her at the Murat Election Night. (HPI Photo by A. Walker Shaw)

HPI: Tell me how the Bayh team integrated with Hillary’s campaign in Indiana? I don’t think she would have won here without you or your team on the ground here.

Bayh: Who knew back in August. Was it August?

HPI: Sept. 23.

Bayh: Who knew that for 40 years we hadn’t had a competitive primary race; who knew this was going to happen. And, frankly, Brian, I’d like to say I hope we can find a way as Democrats, Republicans and Independents to make Indiana matter. It should be like this more often. I think this was good for our state. It was good the nation paid attention to us. It was good that national leaders came to us, understand our challenges. I think it makes it more likely our needs will get addressed. And I hope Repubicans can have this kind of excitement in their primary. It was good for the state of Indiana and it will be good for the Democratic Party in the near term. It’s good for our people in the state. Who knew this was going to happen? It was sometime about eight weeks ago it was apparent that we might actually matter, that we became part of a seamless operation. We were able to guide her people to talk to the right people, go to the right places, say the right things and help them. We were happy to do that.

HPI: How does Hillary Clinton win the nomination from this point on? (Note: Obama is only 177 votes shy of the 2025, she is 327 votes short and there are only 217 remaining super delegates and 261 super delegates).

Bayh: You know, Brian, I actually walked in my front door at 4 a.m. and I turned off the light at 4:30 which is the long way of saying if I sound incoherent, it’s because, like you, I’m not operating on a lot of sleep. I haven’t had a lot of time to think about that. We’ve been so focused on Indiana. We wanted to make sure that we took care of our business at home. Look, she’s got to keep winning states. West Virginia is in a week. I think she has a chance to do well there. Kentucky is a week after that. I think she’s well ahead there. She has to keep winning and we’ll just see how it plays out. I know what the math is and I also know that life and politics are unpredictable. We don’t know what will happen over the next few weeks. Barack has an advantage at this point. You just don’t know what will happen. No. 2, these calls to bring the process to an end have been going on for some time. If those voices had had their way, we wouldn’t have gotten a chance to vote. I know how Hoosiers would have felt about that. Look at these 1.2 million people who voted yesterday. Should they not have had a chance to vote? Could we in good conscience look to our neighbors in Kentucky and say, we’ve done our part, now you should be shut out? Look, we’re Democrats. We vote, we see who wins. We don’t stop the process for temporary political expediency. There’s always a risk that things will get too acrimonious or personal. I honestly don’t think that’s happened so far. Of course there are hard feelings when the candidate you support doesn’t win. But I think when most people catch their breath and focus on the fall campaign will see the real difference between the two candidates. I think most people will come together. That’s how she wins, by taking it one week at a time.

HPI: Gov. Daniels has proposed moving the Indiana primary to the same day as New Hampshire, and using a surcharge on all campaign related items to pay for the election. Is that something you could support? Indiana used to have the first primary.

Bayh: I wasn’t under the impression we gave it up. I was under the impression that everyone started earlier. Yes, that’s the kind of thing we ought to sit down and work together on. This is good for Hoosiers to have a chance to have our say. We absolutely look at that proposal and any other. This is just the first I’ve heard of that proposal. I think he’s exactly right, we ought to find a way to work together to make sure our voices are heard more often than every four decades. These national folks fly over our state and they occasionally stop to pick up some money. They might look out the window and say, ‘I wonder who those people are down there.’ Now they know.

HPI: Will you campaign for Hillary in Kentucky and West Virginia?

Bayh: I don’t have any plans to do that. I may take a breather from politics for a little bit because I’ve got an important day job I want to focus on. When they ask me to do press interviews, that won’t take too much time.

HPI: When you and Hillary took the stage last night, the networks had not projected a winner. The rest of us spent another two hours waiting. You must have seen some internals that said she had undoubtedly won.

Bayh: Yeah, absolutely. Terry McAuliffe and Robby Mook called their numbers guy who apparently has a very good track record and he was confident she was going to win. We didn’t want to run a slight chance that she would go out and declare victory and then have it turn out that it wasn’t so. We had to wait around for awhile.

HPI: Did you realize it got down to 17,000 votes with 72 percent of Lake County still out?

Bayh: We saw that, but we kind of assume. Who knows? Hopefully someone in the journalism world will take a look at some things and report whatever the facts are. I have nothing to say until we know what the facts are. We assumed that the Gary precincts more favorable to Sen. Obama were reported first. It had to be that way, she went from a 40,000-vote lead to 20,000; 88 percent of the vote was in and it went up to 91 percent and 20,000 votes. That’s 3 percent more of the vote was in and she dropped 20,000 votes. So the only way that can happen is if they were overwhelmingly Sen. Obama precincts. We assumed the precincts in Gary had been reported first.

HPI: I don’t think I’ve ever seen you more fired up than your introductory speech last night. Put last night into context with wins in your career.

Bayh: I’ve been blessed to have a number of wonderful evenings. I think I’d put at the top of the list my election as governor for the first time, just because that was something that hadn’t happened in 20 years. But last night was a very good night. I realize there were expectations for me and I like it when people have high expectations and I like to meet them. When we got those first poll numbers eight weeks ago she was behind by 8 percent and I was fortunate that I had some good people who got to work and made it happen.

INDIANAPOLIS - There were surreal moments for both the Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger gubernatorial campaigns before Indiana’s glass ceiling shattered. They began Tuesday afternoon when it became clear that there was a large Republican crossover into the Democratic primary. What would it mean? One campaign hand told HPI, "We’re flying blind." Thompson’s campaign had seen internal numbers that indicated an 11th hour 8 percent lead.

It was still instrument flight rules mid-day Wednesday, when Long Thompson, with a 7,200 vote lead, declared victory in Fort Wayne and Schellinger’s campaign in Indianapolis said the race was too close to call.

Jill Long Thompson has an emotional reunion with United Steelworkers in Indianapolis after returning for the first time following her historic win on Wednesday. (HPI Photo by A. Walker Shaw)

But the Schellinger campaign was saying, not so fast. Tim Jeffers, campaign manager for Schellinger, issued the following statement on the election results: “This race is still too close to call. There are many precincts still uncounted, provisional ballots to count and sort through, and a re-canvass process that will likely show shifts in county vote totals. As we know, the election process is sometimes a lengthy one when elections are very, very close — but as Democrats, we believe every vote must count. It’s important that we protect the integrity of the election process, especially with this many new registered voters and record turnout." 

Thompson added, "I expect this to be a very tough fight and I expect to win. What’s most pleasing is he (Gov. Daniels) has been running ads for a long time and people aren’t buying it. Voters want more than a flannel shirt and a connoisseur of tenderloin."

As with the Clinton-Obama presidential race, the gubernatorial race had momentum shifts after the Howey-Gauge Poll on April 23-24 showed Thompson with an 18-percent lead. At about that time, the Schellinger campaign shifted its phone calls to target female voters. By the last poll - by SurveyUSA, which had Thompson leading by 2 percent - her support among females was rapidly eroding. She had led among females by 23 percent but that eroded to 5 percent. In the Howey-Gauge Poll, Thompson had a 45-25 percent lead among white women and 45-15 percent among African-American women.

Another factor that drew the race closer was the Republican crossover. Schellinger had a 45 to 33 percent lead among Republicans in Howey-Gauge. Thus, when the GOP crossover moved from concept to reality, it threw the race into turmoil. Schellinger’s comeback was fueled by Republican crossover, as Howey-Gauge noted on April 29. In our poll, In House districts where the Republican was unopposed, the GOP crossover ballooned. In HD22, State Rep. Bill Ruppel received 3,651 votes; the Democrats received 4,500. In HD15, State Rep. Don Lehen polled 3,215 votes while Democrats Myron Sutton (6,572) and John Malan (3,035) feasted. In all, about 75 percent of Republicans voted in the Democratic primary and Schellinger clearly benefitted.

"It was staggering," said Gauge Market Research Pollster Holly Davis. "He definitely benefitted from the Republican crossover. Republicans nearly carried him to victory. I think they carried Hillary Clinton to victory."

By mid-evening Tuesday, Schellinger had pulled into a 50/50 tie with Thompson, with the race see-sawing by a few thousand votes until it stopped around midnight, awaiting the final 72 percent of the Lake County returns to report. It was Lake County that ultimately gave Thompson the final narrow lead. She was endorsed by the Steelworkers, and this was their turf. Thompson also received a key endorsement from Lake County Sheriff Roy Dominguez, who introduced her at the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner. There was also the under-the-radar animosity between U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky and the Indiana Democratic Party, which was clandestinely backing Schellinger. Lake County became payback time and Thompson benefitted, in part for the aforementioned elements and partly from the huge Obama turnout.  In Howey-Gauge, Thompson also led among African-American males 57-6 percent.

"The polls were all over the place," said Bett Voorhies, Indiana political coordinator for the United Steelworkers. "There was quite a bit of movement in the final weeks." Asked how Thompson staved off the Schellinger charge, Voorhies said, "The Steelworkers. The bulk of our membership is from the Gary-East Chicago area. Our field program paid off. The program I had set up, my workers were doing what they had to do. We had 100 volunteers covering about 100 precincts." He was unsure of the Obama impact. "With our membership, we have not endorsed in the presidential because our membership is split," he said. "I don’t know if Obama had much of an effect or not. Our Steelworkers program was probably the biggest we’ve had in Indiana."

Voorhies said that Sheriff Dominguez played a significant role. "He has been a huge supporter of ours. I’m sure it swayed a lot of people. But we won this thing on the ground. At every Obama event, at every Hillary event, at every Bill event, we had Steelworker volunteers handing out literature. We were meeting 3,000 to 4,000 Democrats at a time. We had no paid media other than a little cable."

There was other movement in the race. Thompson did well in Northern Indiana where she had run in the 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts. There were a lot of undecideds who broke for Schellinger in Southern Indiana, said Holly Davis of Gauge Market Research, HPI’s polling partner. "He was able to capitalize things in the last week and a half. A lot of that was part of the Evan Bayh machine geared up and working. In a race where there were not two heavyweights, it was a baseline race with two candidates not well known."

Schellinger’s problem was timing. His name ID was minuscule going into the final two months of the campaign. He wasted most of 2007 when he could have been building name ID. The Schellinger campaign appeared to flail. At one point he debated himself before the Marion County Chairman’s Breakfast.

Had the campaign worked to get earned media and started its grassroots programs earlier, it might have made the difference.

Thompson enters the matchup with Gov. Daniels as a distinct underdog. In the February Howey-Gauge Poll, she trailed Daniels 56-33 percent. In April, Daniels had a 55-36 percent lead. But she will present some interesting contrasts and some problems. Had Schellinger won, it was likely that he and Daniels would have had a gentlemanly campaign. The governor has an aversion to going negative and has vowed not to do so. WTHR-TV analyst Peter Rusthoven told HPI at the Howey-Gauge Briefing, "She will get under his skin big time." Thompson had a propensity to go negative in her primary race against Schellinger and in the 2002 race against U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola, as well as her 1989 4th CD special election race against Republican Dan Heath.

There is also the prospect of a Democratic tidal wave. John McCain, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, only polled 77 percent against Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney in the Republican primary among those GOP voters who didn’t cross over. Democrats are vastly out-raising Republicans and out-polling them in primaries nationwide.

Thompson will have to sort through issues if she is to unite the Democratic Party. The party’s central committee was clearly hostile. At the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner she was only politely received. She  extended an olive branch by paying homage to former Sen. Birch Bayh, who she credited for his landmark Title IX legislation that opened doors for her and other women. It might have been aimed at U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh and Indiana Democratic Chairman Dan Parker, who has favored Schellinger.

KOKOMO - The sputtering Indianapolis Democratic machine may finally have broken down Tuesday night, coming to a plodding halt after a series of electoral wrenches that ended the campaign of Jim Schellinger and may soon end the presidential aspirations of Hillary Clinton. Now Jill Long Thompson must assume the mantle of gubernatorial nominee of a party which has spent the better part of a year undermining her candidacy. the success of which going forward could now lie in her ability to wrest control of the state central committee from Evan Bayh.

Schellinger’s fall was a particularly dramatic blow for the Indianapolis-centric Democratic Party establishment that supported the architect in near unanimity. The Bayhs, O’Bannons, Kernans, Carsons, Parkers, and O’Connors of the party all backed Schellinger’s losing campaign, much of which was also headed by One North Capitol staff, notably including Mike Edmondson, who served a stint as campaign manager, Tim Jeffers, who later relieved Edmondson, and Jennifer Wagner, who became press secretary after the departure of Robert Kellar.

Though the state party remained officially neutral, Kellar in his final days once awoke to an e-mail from himself that he had not written. Signed by Kellar and e-mailed from his address without his knowledge, Wagner had publicized an attack on Long Thompson’s role in the 1992 House banking scandal while still on the party’s payroll. Previously she attended at least one organizational meeting at Schellinger’s home months before departing the state party.

Neutrality was at once artifice and apparent, and it will make Long Thompson’s task of unifying the party a difficult one. Asked on her blog in March whether Wagner would work for Long Thompson’s campaign after the primary, she responded, "Nope. I play to win. Thanks."

The former congresswoman doesn’t even maintain an Indianapolis office.

Parker’s staff might reluctantly go through the motions for Long Thompson while remaining privately convinced that she can’t win. But even for the candidates the whimpering establishment has enthusiastically supported, Schellinger’s effort is another example of a campaign squandered. If anything should send a chill down Jill Long Thompson’s spine, it’s the prospect of the same people who brought Indiana Democrats back-to-back Kernan-Kennedy-Peterson-Schellinger losses now inheriting the responsibility of electing a nominee for whom they have seething contempt.

Jill Long Thompson has the opportunity to mount a coup d’état within the party, a prospect that has become not only a practical necessity for her campaign’s survival, but also a long-awaited chance to make the Indiana Democratic Party something more than an organ for the personal ambitions of Evan Bayh.

Indeed, the only party-backed candidate who had a good night Tuesday was Congressman Andre Carson, but his was a victory wrapped in irony after bucking Bayh and Parker to support Barack Obama.

This is not a coincidence, and Long Thompson should follow the lead of other electorally successful Hoosier Democrats like Carson, Pete Viscloskly, Jonathan Weinzapfel, Joe Donnelly, Brad Ellsworth, and Baron Hill, all of whom learned long ago not to equate Evan Bayh’s success with their own, staying, for their own sake, always a step ahead of the Indy establishment.

Weinzapfel, Carson, and Hill did just that in endorsing Obama before Tuesday’s primary, and they’ve since been vindicated. Fewer than 15,000 votes of 1.2 million cast separated Hillary Clinton from Barack Obama, who despite losing the state has nonetheless managed to drive what appears to be the penultimate nail into Clinton’s coffin.

Hers was a campaign not run into the ground by Bayh, but it was fitting that her margin was just wide enough to save Bayh from embarrassment, and little more. Schellinger may have benefitted from the public backing of Bayh — he certainly had his backroom support — but then, he couldn’t tempt the senator with the vice presidency. Not least for that reason, Schellinger expressed private regrets about getting into the race at all, even before his Tuesday loss, feeling abandoned by Bayh and Parker, both of whom talked him into running last year.

Clinton’s margin and Schellinger’s loss speaks to the diminishing influence of Bayh in the state.

Now Long Thompson has the opportunity to diminish it in the party, and she should seize it.

INDIANAPOLIS - Phones were ringing off the hook at the offices of Indiana’s three remaining uncommitted superdelegates the morning after the curtain fell on the political theater that was Tuesday’s state primary election. Everybody wanted to know whether the Hoosier holdouts had made any decision about who they will back at the Democratic Convention in August.

"There are now more delegates at stake in the backrooms than there are on the campaign trail," NBC’s Chuck Todd said.

U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly stood and watched Obama supporters demonstrate outside the Indiana Convention Center at the Jefferon-Jackson Day Dinner Sunday. While his wife and children favor Barack Obama, Donnelly will ramin uncommitted. (HPI Photo by A. Walker Shaw

The state is residence to a dozen Democratic superdelegates, current or former party leaders and elected officials who are automatically seated at the party convention. Four, including Sen. Evan Bayh, have publicly supported Sen. Hillary Clinton’s White House bid, while five are behind Sen. Barack Obama. A 13th unpledged delegate will be added to the state roster at the Indiana State Democratic Convention slated for June 21.

Two Hoosier superdelegates made headlines in the last weeks of the campaign by announcing their support for Obama, Rep. Baron Hill (9th CD) and Joe Andrew, the former national chairman of the Democratic National Committee. Andrew, who initially backed Clinton, made national headlines when he indicated he was switching to the Obama camp just days before the election and at a time when the media was in a frenzy over the Illinois senator’s association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright. By so doing, the former Indiana state party chairman was credited with diverting some attention from the Wright affair, but Tuesday’s exit polling indicated it was simply not enough. CNN reported that more than 70 percent of Clinton voters stated Obama’s relationship with his former pastor was an important consideration in determining their choice at the ballot box. Much of Hill’s district, located in the state;s southwest corner, favored Clinton, although nearly 18,000 voters - or two of every three ballots cast - went for Obama in Monroe County, home to Indiana University.

U.S. Representatives Brad Ellsworth (8th CD), Pete Visclosky (1st CD) and Joe Donnelly (2nd CD) have yet to offer a public endorsement despite the drama that captivated national audiences preceding the historic Hoosier primary. Media attention continues to focus on Indiana and the three uncommitted delegates following Clinton’s narrow victory on Tuesday. She won by 18,400 votes, about two percent of total ballots cast in the contest. None of the three are offering much in the way of who, why and when they will commit, although Rep. Ellsworth did provide HPI with the following statement:

"I stand by my belief that the American people, not superdelegates, should decide who the Democrat nominee will be, and I was glad to see record numbers of Hoosiers getting involved and casting their votes in this historic race" Ellsworth wrote. "If it comes down to the convention, I will support the candidate 8th District voters chose unless there is a compelling reason to do otherwise."

Every county in the freshman’s district voted overwhelmingly for Clinton on Tuesday. Known as the "Bloody 8th," the mostly rural district stretches in a narrow column along the state’s western border, with Evansville to the south and much of Warren County to the north.

The two undecided northern Democratic congressman indicated they don’t know when they will announce an endorsement.

"Congressman Visclosky remains undeclared and undecided," spokesman Jacob Ritvo told HPI yesterday. The 12-term Democrat "is constantly gathering data" and will not establish "a self-imposed timeline" for making his decision. Ritvo said he expects Visclosky to weigh several criteria before announcing his endorsement, including the results of Tuesday’s primary vote in the 1st CD, located in the state’s northwest corner. Lake County’s 130,000 Democratic primary voters went 56-44 percent for Obama, while less-populated surrounding counties favored Clinton. In terms of issues the congressman deems important to northwest Indiana, Ritvo said "jobs, jobs, jobs" as well as the economy, trade, gas prices and health care.

Rep. Donnelly released this statement yesterday afternoon: "I have not yet endorsed either candidate who is seeking the Democratic nomination. I do not know on what date I will endorse, but when I do, I will back the candidate I think would make the best president." During last Sunday’s state Democratic Jefferson-Jackson dinner, Donnelly told HPI that his wife and children were for Obama. The 2nd CD is located just to the east of Visclosky’s district. Population centers include South Bend, Mishawaka and Elkhart, which favored Obama on Tuesday. More rural counties in the southern portion of the district fell into Clinton’s camp.

Here’s the breakdown for Indiana’s entire superdelegate contingent:

Endorsing Clinton

* U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh
* Dan Parker, chairman, Indiana Democratic Party
* Phoebe Crewe, member, Democratic National Committee (DNC)
* Bob Pastrick, DNC

Endorsing Obama

* Joe Andrew, former DNC chairman and former chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party
* U.S. Rep. Baron Hill (9th CD)
* U.S. Rep. Andre Carson (7th CD)
* Cordelia Lewis Burks, DNC
* Connie Thurman, DNC

Unannounced

* U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth (8th CD)
* U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky (1st CD)
* U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly (2d CD)

WASHINGTON — Three days after the Kentucky Derby, it appeared that Rep. Baron Hill had backed the winner in the Democratic presidential horse race but put his political money on the loser of the vote in his southeast Indiana district. Standing out from most of his Democratic congressional colleagues, Hill decided to make an endorsement in his party’s nomination process before Tuesday’s Hoosier primary. He followed his mentor, former Rep. Lee Hamilton, and backed Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

U.S. Rep. Baron Hill talks with supporters at the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner. His endorsement of Barack Obama didn't sway any of his 9th CD counties. (HPI Photo by A. Walker Shaw)

Hill may have been prescient when it came to the big picture. Obama won North Carolina solidly on Tuesday and battled to a narrow 51-49 loss in Indiana to his opponent, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The outcome leaves Obama with a lead over Clinton in Democratic delegates, 1840.5 to 1688, according to the Associated Press. The eventual nominee needs to win 2025. Obama also has the support of more than 250 of  795 Democratic superdelegates, party leaders like members of Congress and statewide office holders.

But on the micro level, the story is different. Clinton trounced Obama in Hill’s district, winning the 9th CD 67 percent to 33 percent. In pivotal Clark and Floyd counties, Clinton prevailed 68-32 and 66-34, respectively. In the Democratic-leaning Scott County, she triumphed 78-22.

On Wednesday afternoon, Hill’s Republican opponent, former Rep. Mike Sodrel, was poring over the election results, pondering whether they bode ill for Hill in the fall. He noted that 19 of 20 counties in the district’s Democratic primary backed Clinton, as did 17 of the Democratic county chairs. Having Hill put himself on the other side of the district’s Democratic voters and leadership could be a boon for Sodrel in what could  be Indiana’s only competitive congressional race. "It could be to my advantage to have Senator Obama at the top of the ticket," Sodrel said in an HPI interview. Sodrel was gauging the atmosphere in 10 precincts in five counties on election day. "I found a lot of disgruntled Democrats," he said. "The question is whether they will be disgruntled come November. I think some of them will be. Time will tell."

Hill was not available for an HPI interview on Wednesday. He enthusiastically endorsed Obama last week. He praised Obama for denouncing the controversial former pastor of his Chicago church and praised Osama’s “strength of character and commitment to our nation that transcends the personal."

He went on to say in a statement, "Senator Obama has the capability to change the tone and tenor of politics in Washington."

Hill’s bold, aggressive endorsement is in stark contrast to the continued caution of two other Hoosier Democratic congressional freshmen, Reps. Brad Ellsworth (8th CD) and Joe Donnelly (2nd CD). Neither Ellsworth nor Donnelly was available for comment on Wednesday.

In a statement issued by his press secretary, Elizabeth Farrar, Ellsworth seemed to indicate that he will back Clinton, who won every county in Ellsworth’s southwest Indiana district. Ellsworth said, "The American people, not superdelegates,  should decide who the Democrat nominee will be. I will support the candidate 8th District voters choose unless there is a compelling reason to do otherwise."

Donnelly’s staff did not respond to an HPI interview request. Last week, Donnelly said in a statement, "Ultimately, I will support who I think would best serve our country as president." He said he would consider who leads in the delegate count and in the popular vote as well as who did best in the 2nd CD. On that latter count, Obama won St. Joseph and Elkhart counties, but Clinton won decisively in blue-collar Kokomo and Howard County, 55-44.

If Ellsworth and Donnelly decide to back Clinton, that will align them with Sen. Evan Bayh, who spent enormous amounts of political capital working for Clinton and helping deliver her narrow statewide win. Of course, the outcome also could be interpreted as Bayh essentially pulling only 51 percent of the vote, a surprisingly weak showing for someone who wins his own races without breaking a sweat. But that doesn’t mean that crossing Bayh and backing Obama is risk-free for Hoosier congressional superdelegates. The senator will still control the state party for the foreseeable future.

In the end, the machinations surrounding the Democratic presidential nomination may not affect individual House races. Ellsworth and Donnelly are facing opponents who have a long way to go to amass the financial and political support to mount a serious challenge.

In the 9th CD, Sodrel trails Hill in cash on hand by a wide margin, $308,000 to $990,000, according to the latest Federal Election Commission filing. But Sodrel says his fundraising is ahead of where it was in 2004, when he beat Hill to take over the seat, which he lost in 2006. For his fourth contest against Hill in the last four election cycles, Sodrel takes inspiration from Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard, who beat the heavily favored and much better financed Democratic incumbent, Bart Peterson.

“Greg Ballard recently proved that if you’re right on the issues, you can overcome the money difference,” Sodrel said.