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By BRIAN A. HOWEY and MARK SCHOEFF JR.
INDIANAPOLIS - This was an election with something for everyone. Democrats saw Indiana go blue for the first presidential election since 1964 and retained control of the Indiana House by a 52-48 margin. Republicans saw Gov. Mitch Daniels win a second consecutive term, defend the attorney general and superintendent of public instruction offices, maintain a 33-17 margin in the Indiana Senate and defend their four congressional seats by resounding margins.
If you were of a “throw the bums out” sentiments, six Indiana House seats changed parties - four Republicans and two Democrats. There will be 32 new members of the Indiana General Assembly due to death, resignation, retirement or defeat, the highest since 33 seats changed hands in 1992. If you liked the status quo, all nine members of Congress returned and Speaker B. Patrick Bauer will be there to offer “constructive” input.
If you’re a reformer, 31 of the 43 township assessors were abolished and Gov. Daniels returns, never having to face the voters again. He is expected to aggressively push an agenda of government reform and education enhancement.
This election marks the last time Daniels will be on a ballot. It will be difficult for Jill Long Thompson to revive a political career that now includes three consecutive general election defeat, two for Congress and one for governor.
There will be speculation on who might join Barack Obama’s administration with Sens. Lugar, Bayh, and former congressmen Tim Roemer and Lee Hamilton on various lists for the emerging cabinet expected to take shape after Thanksgiving.
Both parties now face gubernatorial succession issues that will slowly begin to play out. For Republicans, there will a search for clues as to who succeeds the Daniels era: Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman, Republican Chairman J. Murray Clark, Senate President David Long and U.S. Rep. Mike Pence will top all lists. For Democrats, there will be a three-year search for someone to assume the party mantle and restore energy and ideas. The short list there will likely include former mayors Bart Peterson and Graham Richard, former Speaker John Gregg, Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel, Lake County Sheriff Rogelio Dominguez and newly elected Senate Minority Leader Vi Simpson.
Presidential
Obama invested heavily in Indiana and won a 1 percent victory over John McCain. He opened 44 offices, made 49 trips including the last of his campaign on Election Day, and built a rapport in Republican counties. The strategy delivered, with Republican strongholds like Noble County giving Obama 42 percent (30 percent in 2004), LaGrange 39 percent (28 percent in 2004), Steuben 45 percent (33 percent in ‘04), Kosciusko 39 percent (21 percent in 2004), Johnson 37 percent (26 percent in 2004) and Shelby 40 percent (28 percent in 2004).
The Obamas and Bidens greet more than a quarter million supporters and a worldwide TV audience in Chicago's Grant Park on Election Night. (HPI Photo by Ryan Nees)
In Hamilton County, subject of Walter Shapiro’s Salon.com story on suburban politics, Obama polled 38 percent, up from the 25 percent that John Kerry received in 2004. While Lake County was credited with putting Obama over the top, the plurality actually came within the 49,691 votes for Obama in Hamilton County and the extra thousands of votes he polled from some of Indiana’s most Republican counties.
“They were in our headquarters, (Obama) organizers and volunteers, just canvassing and calling people,” said Mary Kay Elder, chairwoman of the Perry County Democratic Party told the Evansville Courier & Press. “I had never actually seen anything like a presidential campaign getting a committee together here, and I’ve been involved in politics for 40 years. It was unbelievable.” The payoff: Perry County, which went to Republican George W. Bush in 2004 by seven votes, went Democratic this time. Obama won by a margin of 5,140 to 3,201 for the GOP’s John McCain.
It was an audacious, successful game plan that spread the field. No one here had ever seen anything like it. It dismantled conventional wisdom. Obama lost Indiana to Hillary Clinton in the May primary due to an influx of “Limbaugh” Republicans. He might have won Indiana in November with those who were jarred by the failures of the Bush administration, the financial collapse on Wall Street and a candidate with a strange name who actually met them more than halfway. He outraised McCain $639 million to $335 million and therein lies the cushion of his historic victory.
Our analysis in October was that if Obama could poll more than the 38 percent of the white vote he had in the October 23/24 Howey/Gauge Poll he might win. Obama carried 45 percent, according to CNN exit polling data. He got 41 percent of white men and 48 percent of white women. He polled 54 percent of independents and 13 percent of Republicans. Obama won 86 percent of those who strongly disapproved of President Bush.
Probably the most striking weakness of John McCain’s quest for the White House was that he never articulated a clear plan for what he would do if he were elected. Despite surrounding himself with some of the best business leaders and economic thinkers in the country, he failed to develop a simple, three-point approach to reviving the economy that all Americans could repeat by heart by mid-September.
His advisers got it wrong when they assumed that the campaign would be about character rather than issues. Voters grew to trust Barack Obama enough that they concluded he would be a safe bet for president. They hungered for a response to the biggest issue of the day–the cratering economy.
Obama didn’t really have a plan that would directly address the economic crisis. Tax cuts for the middle class is an elixir at best. But Obama didn’t need one. As the challenger–and McCain was essentially the incumbent–all he had to do was make the election a referendum on the status quo. He succeeded brilliantly.
Indiana had a front row seat to the best candidate and campaign in modern American history. The candidate was cool and calm, his rhetoric soared and inspired, and he drew hundreds of thousands of Hoosiers out of their homes and into the political public space. Indiana went Democratic for the first time since 1964 and the time before that was FDR in 1932. Historians are already comparing 2008 to the epic transformation elections of 1980, 1932 and 1860.
Governor
Gov. Daniels conducted one of the best campaigns in modern Indiana history. His opponent performed one of the worst. If it weren’t for Obama, Daniels might have eclipsed Evan Bayh’s plurality and percentage records. Daniels ran TV almost non stop from the time the Indiana General Assembly’s sine die with a historic property tax reform package in
Gov. Mitch Daniels, buoyed by a landslide victory over Democrat Jill Long Thompson, says he has some campaign stock he'll want to get rid of. (HPI Photo by A. Walker Shaw)
March. Thompson failed to close ranks within her party, feuded with labor, disappeared in early summer, picked a running mate virtually no one envisioned as a legislator ready to step up to gubernatorial politics. While Daniels’ campaign manager Eric Holcomb put together the best campaign and ground game in modern history, Thompson’s went 180 degrees in the other direction with a late and shaky field staff that was quickly laid off, a lack of ideas, and a nasty campaign demeanor. She saw traditional Democratic newspapers like the Post-Tribune and Fort Wayne Journal Gazette back Daniels. She began her TV in August and pulled it shortly after Labor Day for seven long, long weeks.
Thompson didn’t carry a single county in her old congressional district and lost Allen County 61-37 percent. In the 2nd CD, where she ran unsuccessfully in 2002, she carried only St. Joseph County and barely, winning by a 50-48 percent margin. Thompson failed to carry her current home county of Marshall and her family homestead county of Whitley. Thompson got a 56,000 vote plurality out of Lake County but Daniels swamped her in Hamilton, where he emerged with an 85,000 vote plurality. That Hamilton County edge essentially covered the plurality she gained in Lake and the 12 other counties she carried. Thompson carried the Lake Michigan counties as well as St. Joseph and Vermillion, Sullivan and Knox counties in the Wabash River valley as well as Crawford, Perry and Dearborn in the Ohio Valley.
Daniels carried 20 percent of the African-American vote, compared to 7 percent in 2004, extraordinary considering voters also had the first chance in American history to vote for a black man for president and many voted a straight Democratic ticket. Daniels polled 24 percent of the Democratic vote (compared to 13 percent in 2004). He won among whites 61-36 percent, among youth 18- 21-year-olds 51 percent; and carried 67 percent of the 65 years and older. Daniels carried 58 percent of the male vote, 56 percent of the female vote.
Daniels carried 79 of 92 counties and polled 249,676 more votes than in 2004 with 1.552 million. It came during a ferociously hostile environment for Republicans. When it all ended, Daniels shared the spotlight of change with Obama. While the two haven’t met and come to the center from opposite ideological moorings, Daniels and Obama cast themselves as change agents in a troubled world.
Upon winning their offices, both sounded similar themes Tuesday night. At Conseco Fieldhouse, Daniels brandished a “Ditch Mitch” bumper sticker and told his supporters, “Change just won and won big in Indiana. This is less an endorsement than an instruction. This is less a victory than an assignment. And what the people of Indiana have said is they want us to press forward with change and improvement and reform.” Daniels said he hoped his victory would influence future candidates to “be a little braver, think a little bigger, promote something bolder. You can propose a new idea that won’t shoot the messenger.”
About 150 miles away at Grant Park a few hours later, Obama told the nation: “There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won’t agree with every decision or policy I make as president. And we know the government can’t solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And, above all, I will ask you to join in the work of remaking this nation, the only way it’s been done in America for 221 years — block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand. What began 21 months ago in the depths of winter cannot end on this autumn night. This victory alone is not the change we seek. It is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were. It can’t happen without you, without a new spirit of service, a new spirit of sacrifice.”
Congress
Just as Howey/Gauge polled in the 3rd CD, showing U,S, Rep, Mark Souder trailing Michael Montagano 44-41 percent, the RNCC dropped a devastating attack on the 27-year-old Democrat. His dad had purchased his $320,000 home and his Hummer. He had no income. The picture was of a rich kid who thought he could waltz into Congress without taking stances on issues or dealing with the media. Souder ended up stunning Montagano with a 55-40 percent victory. Our analysis that Souder’s financial bailout vote was unpopular was probably outflanked by the Richie Rich issue.
The end game played out similar to the wave that brought Souder into office in the 1994 Gingrich revolution. He was angered at the negative tactics his party used to save him. “I just don’t know how anybody’s reputation survives $1 million worth of advertising. It discouraged me more than any race I ever had,” Souder told the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette’s Sylvia Smith. Three weeks ago, Souder’s comments to Smith seemed almost fatalistic. When HPI talked to him two weeks out, he appeared to put on a facade of confidence. Behind that facade was a political levee that held.
What we also didn’t know was the extent of the ticket splitting. Many analysts nationally foresaw a Republican bloodbath in Congress. It didn’t happen with the Democrats picking up only 15 seats in the House and currently five in the Senate (another four are under recount). The threat of an Obama wave never materialized and stalwart Republicans in some of the safest GOP congressional districts in the nation - Dan Burton, Steve Buyer and to a lesser extent Mike Pence - were able to ride out the storm with comfortable victories.
With this election, U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky won his 13th term, Andre Carson earned his first full term, Baron Hill vanquished Mike Sodrel for the third (and final?) time, and Brad Ellsworth and Joe Donnelly won their sophomore terms. In the first Obama mid-terms, expect some of those comfort levels to decrease.
Indiana General Assembly
For the first time in modern Indiana history, a Republican governor was elected who failed to bring along a GOP House. Speaker B. Patrick Bauer appears to have upped his majority by a seat to 52-48. Republican incumbents Amos Thomas, Jon Elrod and Tim Harris lost. So did Democrat 34-year veteran Bill Cochran. The parties swapped open seats with Mark Messmer taking the HD63 seat vacated by Dave Crooks and John Barnes taking over Larry Buell’s HD89. State Rep. Scott Reske escaped an upset bid by Kelly Gaskill, who used TV ads with Mitch Daniels to attempt the upset.
The final margin comes down to HD26, where Republican West Lafayette Councilman Randy Truitt has a 20-vote lead over John Polles with provisional ballots hanging in the balance. It may be 10 days before that shakes out.
Daniels was philosophical, telling reporters on Wednesday that “the people have spoken” and that he had accomplished “some great things” with Democrats controlling the House. Bauer explained, “I appreciate they wanted to re-elect the governor and they wanted balance. We’re willing to continue that in a constructive way.”
Clearly, however, the scope of Daniels’ plans for the first half of his second term were impacted by who controlled the House. When HPI asked him last Thursday about his plans for 2009, Daniels deferred, saying he didn’t know who would be speaker.
Senate Republicans maintained a 33-17 majority. The Democrats have turned over their leadership team to Vi Simpson and Tim Lanane.
Government Reform
If Gov. Daniels has big plans, the disappointment at losing the House was mitigated by the 31 township assessors (out of 43) who had voters abolish their offices. Indiana now has 12 township dinosaurs with isolated fiefdoms. This could have considerable impact on the coming Kernan-Shepard reforms. Had most of the assessors survived, it would have placed reactive legislators into a cautionary mode. With Daniels and Obama ushering a change agenda in Indianapolis and Washington, there is now a new opportunity to put the rest of the Kernan-Shepard reforms on the table under the climate of change. Opinion leaders from newspaper editorial boards to business and labor groups recognize that we exist in the 21st, not the 19th century.
A new, profound era of Indiana governance is on the cusp.
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