Jack Colwell: The Tina Effect

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By JACK COLWELL

SOUTH BEND - No Bradley effect was discernible. This often cited possible effect frightened Barack Obama supporters like a hideous Halloween character who just might be real. It was the possibility of significant percentages of white voters telling pollsters they would vote for an African American candidate but then, in the voting both, failing to do so.

Final polls were in line with results, with no sign that lots of folks said they would be for Obama and then couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a black in the White House.

This doesn’t mean there is no lingering racism in America. Just ask the Obama volunteer who told me of the hostile reaction from a man who demanded that she take back an Obama please-remember-to-vote hanger she had left at the front door.

“Obama!” he shouted with contempt. “He ought to be in prison with O.J. Simpson.” The president-elect and Simpson would seem to have only one thing in common. But most voters weren’t thinking of race, as in black and white, but rather of race, as in presidential, with a decision to be made on the basis of which candidate would be the better choice to lead the nation.

Many voters thought the better choice was John McCain. More thought it was Obama. And very few, if any, had been hiding some kind of secret Bradley effect racism from pollsters.

Polls in Indiana were remarkably accurate in reflecting voter sentiment as the election approached. Of the final six polls in Indiana cited by RealClearPolitics, three were a tie, quite unusual, and the other three showed a race too close to call.

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at Noblesville in October. (HPI Photo by Chuck Schisla)

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at Noblesville in October. (HPI Photo by Chuck Schisla)

Too close to call it was all Tuesday night. That, of course, was a bad sign for McCain. If Indiana, so often the first state declared by TV networks to be in the Republican column, was so close  all election night, an Obama tide was rolling.

While there was no Bradley effect, there were other effects, including what that might be called a Tina effect. One of my Notre Dame journalism students told the class of her experience at the polls. She voted early in her home state during mid-semester break. She is an “A” student quite serious about her vote for president.

She also is from a family with conservative Republican views, which she shares. So, it was no surprise that she was planning to vote a straight-Republican ballot. In the voting booth, ready to do so, she thought of Tina Fey. Tina Fey was not on the ballot. Or was she?

The look-alike for Sarah Palin, who captured the unique speaking style and reasoning of the vice presidential candidate in skits on Saturday Night Live, had caused this student not just to laugh, but also to compare the Tina talk with the Sarah talk in the vice presidential debate. She had found that much of the skit was identical to the non-sentence “maverick” lingo of the real Palin.

There in the voting booth, finger poised for the planned straight-Republican vote, this student decided: “I just can’t do it.” She voted for Obama.

It wasn’t done with laughter over some Tina (or Sarah) talk, but with serious concern over selection of a vice presidential nominee who would be, if elected, a heartbeat away from the presidency. President Sarah Palin, leader of the Free World.

So, indeed, right at the polling place, there were voters who decided: “I just can’t do it.” Although there was no discernable Bradley effect, some voters somewhere no doubt decided they couldn’t vote for a black candidate. There were other effects as well, perhaps more powerful, such as a decision not to risk President Tina Fey, leader of the Free World.

Colwell has covered Indiana politics over five decades for the South Bend Tribune.

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This entry was written by BHowey and posted on November 6, 2008 at 9:14 am and filed under HPI Weekly, Jack Colwell Column. Bookmark the permalink. Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post.
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