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By DAVE KITCHELL
LOGANSPORT - Democrat Jill Long Thompson is reportedly trailing almost 2-1 if the latest Howey Gauge Poll is an accurate snapshot of what’s really happening with Indiana voters. If that’s the case, Gov. Mitch Daniels’ popularity could 
turn out to be stronger than trend lines in this historic election year.
Say what you will about Long Thompson, and many, including Daniels have. She may not have the cash or the commercials to pull off this election, but if ever the planets were aligned for a Democrat to pull the rug out from beneath a Republican incumbent governor, this is - or as the poll suggests was - the year.
Consider the “Rule of 12″ of Indiana politics. Every 12 years, there is a general election in every state without either U.S. Senate race on it. This year is one of those rare years in Indiana, and it means the voter magnets from each party, Richard Lugar and Evan Bayh, will not be seen by voters looking down their ballots.
What the Rule of 12 means is that the ballot is more compact at the top, offering little pause from president to Congress to governor to state school superintendent and attorney general.
Let’s clarify: In the last three Indiana general elections when neither Senate seat was on the ballot, the president’s party also claimed the governor’s office. Think there’s no correlation? Think again.
In 1972, Richard Nixon won 49 states in what turned out to be his last election thanks to Watergate. His victory swept in a little-known but eventually legendary Indiana House speaker named Otis Bowen.
U.S. Rep. Baron Hill (left) and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jill Long Thompson at last week's Indianapolis visit by Barack Obama. (HPI Photo by A. Walker Shaw)
In 1984, Indiana’s economy was mired in the Rust Belt Era. Schools were consolidated in Kokomo, Anderson and Muncie as the state hemorrhaged jobs. Yet the second term of Ronald Reagan and events such as the Reagan Roundup in Indiana that led former Ag Secretary John Block here allowed Robert Orr to glide to a relatively easy victory over Wayne Townsend.
In 1996, there was speculation that President Bill Clinton’s popularity might allow him to carry Indiana, even though a Democrat hadn’t carried the state in 32 years. That didn’t happen, but Clinton’s popularity against a bland campaign from Bob Dole did not hurt the chances of Frank O’Bannon defeating Stephen Goldsmith. In the final tally, O’Bannon won 47 counties to Goldsmith’s 45. Some called it an upset. Some blamed a police scandal in Indianapolis. Some faulted polling by the Goldsmith campaign. But the Rule of 12, the elasticity of party allegiance in the presidential and governor’s races, also could be blamed.
Long Thompson’s chances, on paper, also could be boosted by another elastic factor - the congressional races. Daniels conceivably will have to win at least four if not five of the congressional districts to win a second term. But let’s look at what’s out there:
1st District: Peter Visclosky is as safe as a Democrat can be in the United States and Northwest Indiana will give Long Thompson a boost.
2nd District: A marginally Democratic district with a Democratic congressman represents the district where Long Thompson lives. It probably leans in her favor.
3rd District: It’s represented by a Republican for now, but the same poll that shows Daniels ahead shows Rep. Mark Souder’s challenger leading in this race. By the way, Long Thompson is from this district and represented it in Congress. The toll road across the northern edge of it should lose some votes for Daniels here. This too leans Long Thompson.
4th District: Even though Rep. Steve Buyer has been outspent by Harvard-bred attorney Nels Ackerson and Buyer has a horrible record of showing up to vote, Daniels probably carries one of the most predictable Republican districts in the country. Despite that, at least one poll has Obama up in the district.
5th District: Rep. Dan Burton is supposedly ironclad in another conservative district despite being the only member of the entire House to vote against an ethics bill. This district screams for Daniels.
6th District: Rep. Mike Pence is feeling heat, but probably not enough to oust any Republican, and that means it’s Daniels’ too lose.
7th District: Andre Carson is in his third race this year and urban areas are where Obama is strongest in Indiana. Can Daniels carry Indianapolis? Maybe not. It’s a tossup.
8th District: Rep. Brad Ellsworth is the new Democratic face in Terre Haute who may be the Democratic standardbearer for the district, which is a tossup.
9th District: With Rep. Baron Hill expected to have a comfortable victory and Long Thompson’s running mate from Crawford County, former Rep. Lee Hamilton’s district should be in the Democratic column, particularly when time zone problems are factored into the circuitous knobs of this southern Indiana district.
But all this is contingent upon new voters, many of whom have already cast a ballot, and upon what could be an Obama wave that would discourage Republicans from turning out. And Republican apathy could be the thing that works better for Long Thompson than any position paper, commercial, billboard or endorsement.
Long Thompson, like Franklin Delano Roosevelt, John Fitzgerald Kennedy, Lyndon Baines Johnson and Robert Francis Kennedy, is known for her three initials. Unless the Obama tide and the Rule of 12 prevail, she will probably be remembered as a Democratic candidate who broke the spell of the Rule of 12.
Dave Kitchell is a veteran Indiana political journalist who teaches journalism at Ball State.
Tags: Barack Obama, Dave Kitchell, Howey/Gauge, Jill Long Thompson, Mitch Daniels
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This entry was written by and posted on October 29, 2008 at 2:21 pm and filed under David Kitchell Column. Bookmark the permalink. Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post.
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