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By BRIAN A. HOWEY
INDIANAPOLIS - The Obama-McCain presidential race continues to cast a long shadow over Indiana House races. HPI’s Horse Race continues to keep eight races in its Tossup zone one month out, with the specter of the big Obama voter registration drive influencing almost them all. In addition, we’ve moved HD92 held by State Rep. Phil Hinkle from a “likely” into a “leans” status due to the Obama registration drive.
House Republican campaign coordinator Mike Gentry tried to convince us that two open seats - HD26 and 63 - should no longer be in the tossup category. “They both look very favorable to us,” Gentry said of the Randy Truitt/John Polles race in HD26 and the Mark Messmer/John Burger race in HD63. But tempering any internal poll leads for Republicans Truitt and Amos Thomas are the Obama registration drives on college campuses in those districts, particularly Purdue. The Messmer/Burger race is one that may be impacted more by the gubernatorial race than the Obama/McCain showdown.
In HD44, former Greencastle mayor Nancy Michael is pressing State Rep. Thomas. Both parties believe that race will be close. Could greater student participation at DePauw University’s 2,600 students impact that race.
In another historically close race - HD31 where State Rep. Tim Harris is being challenged by Democrat Joe Pearson - African-American precincts in the city of Marion where turnout is expected to exceed 90 percent due to Obama, could alter the outcome there.
Observers in both parties tell HPI that three Indianapolis districts - HD89, HD97 and Hinkle’s HD92 - could also be impacted by high African-American turnout for Obama. “Marion County, for different reasons, is fertile ground for Obama impact,” said House Democratic campaign coordinator J.D. Lux.
Despite the potential Obama impact, Gentry said that the atmosphere for Republican House candidates this year, compared to 2006, is much better. “The Republican generic ballot has improved,” Gentry said. “After 2006, I’ll take what we’re dealing with this year.” [private]
Here is a race-by-race look at the most competitive House seats:
HD5: Democrat: State Rep. Craig Fry. Republican: Dave Miller. 2008 Outlook: Miller, the former two-term Elkhart mayor, has dropped some nasty mailers that had Fry complaining about isolating amendment votes. Gentry said that last GOP poll had Fry leading by 11 percent, but that Fry’s re-elect numbers were problematic. But Gentry also said, “I can’t sit here and say we’ll be there at the end.” Status: Leans Fry
HD15: Democrat: Myron Sutton. Republican: State Rep. Don Lehe. 2008 Outlook: This was one of three recount races in 2006. Lux said that it will likely be close again with a big Obama push in Porter county. “Myron is a better candidate a second time around,” Lux said. “He’s campaigned longer and wiser this year.” Status: TOSSUP
HD26: Democrat: John Polles. Republican: West Lafayette Councilman Randy Truitt. 2008 Outlook: Gentry said that in five GOP polls since late spring, Truitt has had leads outside the margin of error. He is now dropping mail and running TV. “Obama and registration will be a factor which plays to our favor,” Lux predicted, due in part to more than 4,000 new Purdue University student registrations. Status: Tossup
HD31: Democrat: Joe Pearson. Republican: State Rep. Tim Harris. 2008 Outlook: Democrats are sending out attack mailers on Harris, who won the last two elections by razor thin margins. Gentry acknowledges that Obama did well in Marion’s African-American precincts, but added, “Harris has done a decent job in those precincts.” The $64,0000 question no one can answer is how will these new Obama voters act? Will they vote straight Democrat? Will they just vote for Obama? “We really like Joe Pearson’s opportunity there,” said Lux. “As close as it’s been, it may only take a few extra votes.” He said the Obama turnout won’te be on the scale of Indianapolis or Purdue, but added, “If they’re there in Marion, it will be positive for Democrats.” Status: Tossup
HD37: Democrat: State Rep. Scott Reske. Republican: Kelly Gaskill. 2008 Outlook: The Republicans dropped nasty nailers against Reske on what he calls “obscure amendment votes” on sentencing time off for good behavior and the referendum portion of HB1001. On featured a lobbyist with a big cigar. There have been two positive mailers for Gaskill and three negative mailers against Reske. Lux calls it a “trash the incumbent campaign” and adds, “They’re trying to make this competitive.” Gentry said that recent polling shows Gaskill has a shot. “The message seems to be working pretty well on Scott’s bad votes,” Gentry said. “We’ve put some folks on the ground up there. That race came alive just recently.” We suspect this is a GOP maneuver to draw caucus resources into what is likely a black hole. At this point, we think Reske will return, though he appears to be taking nothing for granted and is walking his district. Status: Likely Reske.
HD44: Democrat: Nancy Michael. Republican: State Rep. Amos Thomas. 2008 Outlook: Both sides predict this will be a cliff hanger. “Our polling had Amos up but barely outside of the margin,” Gentry said. “She’s got good name ID. Amos is running an all-out campaign, mostly mail.” A heavy DePauw turnout for Obama could make the difference. Status: Tossup
HD46: Democrat: State Rep. Vern Tincher. Republican: Bob Heaton. 2008 Outlook: Democrats are dropping negative mailers on Heaton, suggesting they are concerned. “Bob was down by the margin of error,” Gentry said. Lux said that Tincher’s role in the 2007 legislative session on the immigration issue will help him. “They respond well to his role on the immigration issue and the lead he took,” Lux said. “He’s sincere about it and it cuts across economic lines.” Status: Tossup
HD63: Democrat: DuBois County Commissioner John Burger. Republican: Mark Messmer. 2008 Outlook: Messmer picked up key endorsements from the Indiana Chamber and the Indiana Manufacturers. Gentry said that Messmer has maintained a significant lead in Republican polling. Burger is running TV in Evansville and Terre Haute. Lux said that Burger is “uniquely sitatuated” to win the race, though he calls this district more Republican leaning that its companion open seat in HD26. Status: Tossup
HD89: Democrat: John Barnes. Republican: Christopher Swatts. 2008 Outlook: Barnes has maintained a heavy cable TV buy. This district has about 7 percent African-American and those precincts will turnout heavily for Obama. Gentry said that GOP polling has Gov. Daniels with a 30 percent lead in this district over Jill Long Thompson. So this is a classic Daniels vs. Obama coattails battle. Lux flat out states, “John Barnes will be the next state representative” and says this is “fertile ground” for Obama impact down ballot. Status: Tossup
HD92: Republican: State Rep. Phil Hinkle. Democrat: Stephanie DeKemper: 2008 Outlook: Hinkle has to be worried about the magnitude of the Obama turnout in this race. We moved this from likely to leans Republican. Status: Leans Hinkle
HD97: Democrat: Mary Ann Sullivan. Republican: State Rep. Jon Elrod. 2008 Outlook: We expect this race to close up. Sullivan hit the airwaves early and will likely close the gap. Republicans still talk about a 20 point lead Elrod had late summer. African-American turnout is expected to be in the 9 to 10 percent range said both Lux and Gentry as well as former State Rep. Ed Mahern who lost to Elrod by just a hand full of vote. Again, this is Obama coattail country. Elrod is canvassing the district at least four days a week and knows he’s in for a fight. Lux said of the 20 percent Elrod lead, “That’s probably polling they used to get him back in the race.” The GOP nomination stood open until Elrod resigning from his 7th CD nomination. Status: Tossup
Notes: Horse Race has released State Rep. Dave Cheatham from competitive status and now lists HD69 as a “safe” Democratic seat. Several other incumbents in the “likely” zone - Tim Neese, Bob Bischoff, Paul Robertson and Sandra Blanton - are a week or two away from reaching such a cherished promise land as well continue to ruminate and cull.
Congressional
3rd CD: Republican: U.S. Rep. Mark Souder. Democrat: Michael Montagano. 2008 Outlook: The DCCC Montagano to its Red to Blue Program. Candidates named to this program are considered to be amongst the top candidates across the country, having skillfully demonstrated that they stand for change and will represent new priorities when elected to Congress. “Mike Montagano’s appointment to the Red to Blue program is further proof that Hoosiers are tired of the economic mess we’re in and are clamoring for change. He is set to unseat Mark Souder and deliver results for the Third District,” said Dan Parker, Chair of the Indiana Democratic Party. Status: LIKELY SOUDER
4TH CD: Republican: U.S. Rep. Steve Buyer. Democrat: Nels Ackerson. 2008 Outlook: The race for Indiana’s 4th District congressional seat took an ugly turn this week with candidates trading accusations over a foiled campaign appearance at a Monday evening event. U.S. Rep. Steve Buyer, R-Monticello, who’s held the seat for eight terms, said Democratic challenger Nels Ackerson “walked out” on an event hosted by Clinton County Farm Bureau. “That was about as brass a move as I’ve ever seen from someone,” Buyer said in a Tuesday interview. But the Ackerson campaign accused Buyer’s campaign of distorting the truth of what happened. Peter Ackerson, Nels’ son and a spokesman for the campaign, said Nels Ackerson wasn’t allowed to speak at the time he’d planned on and had to leave the Clinton County event for another commitment. When Ackerson learned of the schedule change he arranged for a supporter to speak in his absence and visited with the attendees until he had to leave, Peter Ackerson said. Mike Beard, president of Clinton County Farm Bureau, expressed frustration over the back-and-forth that ensued from his event. He said when he learned of Ackerson’s time conflict he promised to try and have the candidate speak earlier if the program allowed. However, the agenda was not far enough along by the time Ackerson had to leave — 6:45 p.m. — and so Beard did not allow it. Status: Likely Buyer
9TH CD: Republican: Mike Sodrel. Democrat: U.S. Rep. Baron Hill. 2008 Outlook: Hill has gone negative for the first time, coming on the heels of his no vote on the bailout. These are signs that this race may be tightening. Hill is running the generic Democratic ad, just like Andre Carson ran in his special election race against Jon Elrod, attacking former U.S. Rep. Mike Sodrel for supporting the privatization of social security (Advance Indiana). A YouTube clip of Hill at a town hall meeting in 2004 makes clear that he likes the idea of privatizing social security, noting that he worked for Merrill Lynch before being elected to Congress. More importantly, the ad completely misrepresents Sodrel’s position on the issue as Hoosier Pundit points out: The ad repeats an old and discredited assertion that Mike Sodrel supports the the privatization of Social Security. An ad in 2006 claiming just this was so discredited and untrue that there were calls for it to be pulled from the air. The very Courier-Journal article cited in the ad as the source of Sodrel’s position says that this is untrue. Back in 2006, I looked the article up. The text of it is available here. Mike Sodrel does not support the privatization of Social Security. Indiana Republican Party Chairman Murray Clark released the following statement on Baron Hill’s latest negative “Millionaire Mike” ad, “Baron Hill is evidently taking a page out of Barack Obama’s playbook of negative campaign attacks. Hoosiers in the 9th Congressional District are fed up with Baron’s loathsome tactics. Baron Hill needs to stand up to the insiders in Washington running his campaign and demand they remove this outrageous commercial from the airwaves.” Status: LEANS HILL
Statewides
Attorney General: Republican: Greg Zoeller. Democrat: Linda Pence. 2008 Outlook: Here’s Lou Jaconbson’s take on this race: Both are respected, and neither is especially well known statewide, so it should be a horse race. In this contest, coattails could matter: Zoeller has done some joint TV ads with Gov. Mitch Daniels (R), who appears to be pulling away in his re-election bid, while Pence should benefit from the surprising strength of the Obama campaign in the state. Zoeller was endorsed by the Indiana Manufacturers. Zoeller announced Wednesday that he will seek additional authority for fighting public corruption by the Office of the Attorney General. “Fighting public corruption will be a priority in the Office of the Attorney General,” said Zoeller. “Our goal will be to provide greater public confidence in the handling of taxpayers’ money.” Zoeller noted it is the statutory duty of the Attorney General to collect public funds following the certification of an audit by the State Board of Accounts (SBOA). During 2007 the SBOA certified over 50 audits to the Office of the Attorney General for collection. These include cases of theft and embezzlement of public funds by those entrusted with the responsibility over the money. Other cases involve poor record keeping and mismanagement of public accounts. Our take? We give Zoeller a slight edge due to the TV ad exposure he’s had with Gov. Daniels. In this race, the gubernatorial coattails are more significant than the presidential ones. Status: Tossup
Tags: Amos Thomas, Christopher Swatts, J.D. Lux, John Barnes, John Burger, John Polles, Mark Messmer, Mike Gentry, Nancy Michael, Phil Hinkle, Randy Truitt
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