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By MARK SCHOEFF JR.
WASHINGTON - Normally, Mike Sodrel doesn’t release internal polls. But he began distributing his latest one earlier this week after it was leaked to a blogger. The accident was timed well. As Sodrel is battling the perception that his campaign to regain his 9th CD seat is faltering, the poll indicates he is hanging in there.
A survey of 500 likely voters conducted on Sept. 8-9 by Wilson Research Strategies shows Democratic Rep. Baron Hill with 44 percent and Sodrel with 41 percent. A poll of 603 voters by Survey USA on Sept. 8-10 showed Hill with an 11-point lead.
Mike Sodre surveys the Arctic National Refuge in July.
Despite a growing drumbeat of doubts about Sodrel’s chances in a horrendous political climate for Republicans, the Wilson poll gives Sodrel a reason for hope. “To be in the margin of error this far out is the best shape I’ve been in - better than ‘04,” Sodrel said in an HPI interview.
This is the fourth time that Sodrel and Hill have competed for the seat, with Hill winning the sprawling, mostly rural southeast Indiana district in 2002 and 2006. Sodrel won during the last presidential cycle in 2004.
This time, Sodrel is playing from behind. Hill has $1.1 million on hand compared to $379,523 for Sodrel, according to the latest Federal Election Commission filings.
Hill launched his first television advertisement on Aug. 25. He has aired spots touting his support for veterans, his effort to “uphold Hoosier values” through Internet safety programs, and his vote in favor of a House energy bill that he says would facilitate domestic drilling.
Sodrel has not yet hit the airwaves. On Tuesday, he said that he would “go up on radio this week and TV shortly after that. Once we go up, we’ll stay up. We don’t want to go up and go dark late.”
How long he stays on the air will be determined by his finances. Sodrel said that he hopes to raise another $150,000 in the next 30 days.
He was in Washington on Tuesday to attend a fundraiser at the National Republican Congressional Committee, where he re-connected with former colleagues who contributed personal cash and funds from their political action committees.
For someone facing such a big shortfall in resources, Sodrel is sanguine. He often cites Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard as an example of a candidate who was substantially outspent but pulled out a victory. Ballard beat incumbent Democrat Bart Peterson in 2007.
“I’m not overly concerned about the money,” Sodrel said. “I’m just concerned about getting out and meeting people. What we lack in money, we’ll make up in elbow grease.”
Sodrel, the owner of a New Albany bus and trucking company, has not yet made a decision on whether to spend his own money on the race. He signed an FEC document last year saying he does not intend to self-finance.
“It’s not a pledge. It’s not a certification. It’s not an affidavit,” said Sodrel. “I don’t plan on it, but I haven’t told anyone I absolutely wouldn’t.”
He may not get much help from Washington. The NRCC had $8.4 million on hand as of June 30 while the DCCC had $54.6 million. The cash difference will make the NRCC parsimonious.
“Most of our decisions will come late,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Oklahoma), NRCC chairman, at a media availability on September 22. “We’ll be looking out over the foxholes wondering who’s still alive who we can help. This is a don’t-shoot-till-you-see- the-whites-of-their-eyes election.”
Cole expressed confidence in Sodrel, noting that he has high name ID in the district.
“Mike’s a good friend of mine,” Cole said. “Mike’s a good candidate. He understands the turf and how to play it. We’ve been involved in that (race). We may well be back there.”
The Democrats, however, like the trends they’re seeing. Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is making Indiana competitive, a state the Democrats haven’t won on the presidential level since 1964. Hill was an ardent Obama supporter during the primary at a time when Sen. Evan Bayh was a prominent supporter of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
In addition, the financial crisis that has come to a head over the last week further tarnishes Republicans, who were already running into stiff political winds caused by a sluggish economy and President Bush’s low approval ratings.
“Mike Sodrel’s campaign is in a tailspin,” said Ryan Rudominer, a DCCC spokesman. “He has shown time and again that he is out of touch with the challenges that middle class families are facing, and the people of southern Indiana won’t stand for it. They want someone who is looking out for their best interests, not a millionaire who is only out for himself.”
Sodrel is hoping that a strong win in the district by Republican presidential nominee John McCain over Obama and by Gov. Mitch Daniels over Democratic challenger Jill Long Thompson will help pull him through in another presidential year.
Tags: Baron Hill, Mike Sodrel
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This entry was written by and posted on September 25, 2008 at 11:44 am and filed under HPI Weekly. Bookmark the permalink. Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post.
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