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By DAVE KITCHELL
LOGANSPORT - Maybe the arrival of Hurricane Gustav as the timely transition between the two major party national conventions was symbolic of what’s to come in the weeks ahead.
Gustav didn’t turn out to be the perfect storm, but it’s apparent the winds of change are blowing. Even as Americans were learning more about Sarah Palin every day in the last week, the Gallup Poll showed Barack Obama widening his lead over John McCain.
Hoosiers may not have to worry about hurricanes, but we do relate to tornadoes. The worst come about four or five times every century, which is just about as often as Democrats carried the state in presidential elections in the last century.
If anything, Indiana is experiencing the political equivalent of a tornado watch. We haven’t sighted a tornado of change on the horizon yet, but to paraphrase the mechanical voice of the National Weather Service warnings, the conditions are right for a tornado to occur.
Yes, even in Indiana. We’ve heard murmurs nationwide and in the Howey Politics Indiana that Indiana could turn from a red state into a blue one in presidential politics this year. Some observers have described states with our trendlines as “purple states” - meaning we’ve been one color traditionally, but we may not be this time.
What conditions are “right” for a political tornado, i.e., a Democrat presidential candidate winning Indiana, to occur? Here they are:
1. Primary presence. Obama and Clinton combined spent more time in Indiana during the primary than any Democratic presidential candidates since at least 1968, and probably longer. Voters in this state have reacquainted themselves with the idea that Democrats can care about them and the party does care about the state. For many years, that was not the case.
2. Congressional majority. For the first time in years, Indiana has a Democratic majority in its congressional delegation. Granted, it’s only 6-5, but it shows how successful the national party has become in making inroads in the state.
3. Proximity. Indiana voters can probably relate more to a Midwest senator like Obama than an Arizonan like McCain. It’s a Big Ten kind of thing, but secondarily, Hoosiers are Upper Midwest, Great Lakes state types. And the last time an Arizonan was on a presidential ticket was also the last time Indiana went donkey in a presidential election.
4. Early decision. Obama does not have the election won yet, but McCain has been able to muster little but statistical ties with him for months. Given the latest polls, fewer Republicans may go to the polls in Indiana this November if Obama has it all but wrapped up and the Sarah Palin effect doesn’t produce the bounce McCain needs.
5. Nonpartisan issues. So many times, politics boils down to partisan positions. But when problems such as mortgage foreclosure, a less than robust economy and fuel prices cut across demographic and political lines, partisan politics tend to go out the window, and the winds favor challengers over incumbents.
6. New voters. Demographics of Indiana voters have changed. In 1964, thousands of railroad employees who happened to be Democrats were still employed in the state. As the railroads vanished, so did Democratic hopes, though auto workers carried the water for the unions in the state for the most part. But now the Republican voters, many of whom were farmers during the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, are dying off. The average age of a farmer is the oldest it has ever been, but no one lives forever. Many of the voters replacing them are first-time voters who have been exposed to an historic primary in the state, and have to feel the energy of what’s happening.
Mind you, I’m not predicting a tornado will occur, but there is a watch in effect.
Dave Kitchell is a veteran Indiana political columnist from Logansport and is a journalisim instructor at Ball State University.
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This entry was written by and posted on September 4, 2008 at 4:32 pm and filed under David Kitchell Column. Bookmark the permalink. Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post.
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