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SURVEYUSA HAS DANIELS UP 52-38%: In an election for Governor of Indiana held today, 08/19/08, incumbent Republican Mitch Daniels defeats Democratic Jill Long Thompson, according to this latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV in Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati..jpg)
Today, it’s Daniels and running mate Lt. Governor Becky Skillman 52%, Democrat Long Thompson and running mate Dennie Oxley 38%. Libertarian and Independent candidates each take 3% of the vote; 4% of likely voters are undecided. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released eight weeks ago, when third-party challengers were not named, Daniels is up 2 points; Long Thompson is down 7. Long-Thompson continues to lead in Northern Indiana. Daniels continues to lead in other regions of the state. 23% of Democrats cross over to vote for incumbent Republican Daniels; 12% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Long Thompson. Independents favor Daniels by 7 points. Among men, Daniels had led by 8, now leads by 23. Among women, Daniels had led by 3, now leads by 6. Among voters age 18 to 49, Daniels’ lead has doubled, from 7 points to 15 points. Among voters age 50+, Daniels had led by 5, now leads by 13.
McCAIN HAS 6% LEAD IN INDIANA: In an election for President of the United States held today in Indiana, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama by 6 points, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. Compared to an identical poll released eight weeks ago, Obama is down 3 points; McCain is up 3. Among those who regularly attend religious services, McCain leads by 28 points, up from 16 points eight weeks ago. Among those who occasionally attend, Obama leads by 14. Among those who rarely attend, Obama leads by 23. The field period for this survey overlapped with the candidates’ participation in Pastor Rick Warren’s Saddleback Civil Forum on the Presidency, held in California 08/16/08. Among men, McCain leads by 12 points; among women, McCain and Obama tie. Eight weeks ago, Obama had led by 7 among women. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, the two candidates tie. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 21 points; among voters who are in-between the two candidates’ ages, McCain leads by 9. 12% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Obama; 19% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican McCain. Independents favor Obama by 12 points. Among those who have graduated from a 4-year college, McCain leads by 15 points; among those who have not, McCain and Obama tie. Among those with household incomes of less than $50,000, Obama leads by 11; among those with incomes above $50,000, McCain leads by 18.
ZOGBY HAS McCAIN UP 46-41%: In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday. McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama’s solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll. The reversal follows a month of attacks by McCain, who has questioned Obama’s experience, criticized his opposition to most new offshore oil drilling and mocked his overseas trip. The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday as Obama wrapped up a weeklong vacation in Hawaii that ceded the political spotlight to McCain, who seized on Russia’s invasion of Georgia to emphasize his foreign policy views. "There is no doubt the campaign to discredit Obama is paying off for McCain right now," pollster John Zogby said. "This is a significant ebb for Obama." "Conservatives were supposed to be the bigger problem for McCain," Zogby said. "Obama still has work to do on his base. At this point McCain seems to be doing a better job with his." The dip in support for Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, cut across demographic and ideological lines. He slipped among Catholics, born-again Christians, women, independents and younger voters. He retained the support of more than 90 percent of black voters. "There were no wild swings, there isn’t one group that is radically different than last month or even two months ago. It was just a steady decline for Obama across the board," Zogby said.
HOT HPI WEBSITE EXPERIENCES ‘FLASH MOB’: Howey Politics Indiana’s website - www.howeypolitics.com - experienced its heaviest day ever on Wednesday, eclipsing exposure it received in late April and early May during the Indiana presidential primary. With last night’s posting on the veepstakes, the site experienced a "flash mob" as it rose to No. 1 on Google News. It caused the server, located in the same complex as Abilene II in downtown Indianapolis, to temporarily crash. Adjustments by our technical team have been made to handle the load. Advertisers wishing to take advantage of this exposure can obtain an HPI Advertising Rate Card by e-mailing: bhowey2@gmail.com.
Veepstakes
TINY VEEP CLUES: We are down to reading tiny little tea leaves in the Democratic veepstakes. ABC News reported this morning that U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh’s wife Susan "just had her hair done" and added that she had told neighbors to "expect a media pack." Barack Obama will campaign with Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine. It now appears that the veep will be announced at the Old Illinois Capitol in Springfield on Saturday (Howey Politics Indiana).
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