SURVEYUSA HAS DANIELS UP 52-38%: In an election for Governor of Indiana held today, 08/19/08, incumbent Republican Mitch Daniels defeats Democratic Jill Long Thompson, according to this latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV in Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati.
Today, it’s Daniels and running mate Lt. Governor Becky Skillman 52%, Democrat Long Thompson and running mate Dennie Oxley 38%. Libertarian and Independent candidates each take 3% of the vote; 4% of likely voters are undecided. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released eight weeks ago, when third-party challengers were not named, Daniels is up 2 points; Long Thompson is down 7. Long-Thompson continues to lead in Northern Indiana. Daniels continues to lead in other regions of the state. 23% of Democrats cross over to vote for incumbent Republican Daniels; 12% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Long Thompson. Independents favor Daniels by 7 points. Among men, Daniels had led by 8, now leads by 23. Among women, Daniels had led by 3, now leads by 6. Among voters age 18 to 49, Daniels’ lead has doubled, from 7 points to 15 points. Among voters age 50+, Daniels had led by 5, now leads by 13.
McCAIN HAS 6% LEAD IN INDIANA: In an election for President of the United States held today in Indiana, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama by 6 points, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. Compared to an identical poll released eight weeks ago, Obama is down 3 points; McCain is up 3. Among those who regularly attend religious services, McCain leads by 28 points, up from 16 points eight weeks ago. Among those who occasionally attend, Obama leads by 14. Among those who rarely attend, Obama leads by 23. The field period for this survey overlapped with the candidates’ participation in Pastor Rick Warren’s Saddleback Civil Forum on the Presidency, held in California 08/16/08. Among men, McCain leads by 12 points; among women, McCain and Obama tie. Eight weeks ago, Obama had led by 7 among women. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, the two candidates tie. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 21 points; among voters who are in-between the two candidates’ ages, McCain leads by 9. 12% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Obama; 19% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican McCain. Independents favor Obama by 12 points. Among those who have graduated from a 4-year college, McCain leads by 15 points; among those who have not, McCain and Obama tie. Among those with household incomes of less than $50,000, Obama leads by 11; among those with incomes above $50,000, McCain leads by 18.
ZOGBY HAS McCAIN UP 46-41%: In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday. McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama’s solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll. The reversal follows a month of attacks by McCain, who has questioned Obama’s experience, criticized his opposition to most new offshore oil drilling and mocked his overseas trip. The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday as Obama wrapped up a weeklong vacation in Hawaii that ceded the political spotlight to McCain, who seized on Russia’s invasion of Georgia to emphasize his foreign policy views. "There is no doubt the campaign to discredit Obama is paying off for McCain right now," pollster John Zogby said. "This is a significant ebb for Obama." "Conservatives were supposed to be the bigger problem for McCain," Zogby said. "Obama still has work to do on his base. At this point McCain seems to be doing a better job with his." The dip in support for Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, cut across demographic and ideological lines. He slipped among Catholics, born-again Christians, women, independents and younger voters. He retained the support of more than 90 percent of black voters. "There were no wild swings, there isn’t one group that is radically different than last month or even two months ago. It was just a steady decline for Obama across the board," Zogby said.
HOT HPI WEBSITE EXPERIENCES ‘FLASH MOB’: Howey Politics Indiana’s website - www.howeypolitics.com - experienced its heaviest day ever on Wednesday, eclipsing exposure it received in late April and early May during the Indiana presidential primary. With last night’s posting on the veepstakes, the site experienced a "flash mob" as it rose to No. 1 on Google News. It caused the server, located in the same complex as Abilene II in downtown Indianapolis, to temporarily crash. Adjustments by our technical team have been made to handle the load. Advertisers wishing to take advantage of this exposure can obtain an HPI Advertising Rate Card by e-mailing: bhowey2@gmail.com.
Veepstakes
TINY VEEP CLUES: We are down to reading tiny little tea leaves in the Democratic veepstakes. ABC News reported this morning that U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh’s wife Susan "just had her hair done" and added that she had told neighbors to "expect a media pack." Barack Obama will campaign with Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine. It now appears that the veep will be announced at the Old Illinois Capitol in Springfield on Saturday (Howey Politics Indiana).
CILLIZZA SAYS SPRINGFIELD, VEEPSTAKES DIFFERENT: Barack Obama will kick off a pre-convention tour on Saturday at the Springfield (Ill.) state House, an announcement that set off wild speculation (surprise, surprise) that the Illinois senator will debut his vice presidential pick that day (Cillizza, Washington Post). Our reporting suggests that the two events — the Springfield rally and the timing of the vice presidential pick — are not directly related. The first is the leading edge of what will be a multi-state tour featuring Obama and his eventual running mate. "Senator Obama will also make stops next week in several battleground states before arriving in Denver," read a newly minted release from the Obama campaign. The vice presidential rollout, according to our reporting, is operating on an entirely different schedule. That is, an Obama vice presidential pick could come as soon as tomorrow morning and as late as Saturday but, either way, the event in Springfield should not be read as an indicator that Obama will unveil his vice presidential pick that day. The longer Obama waits to reveal the identity of his vice presidential pick, the more likely it is to be a so-called "safe" pick — a known commodity unlikely to step on the message leading up to the start of the Democratic National Convention on Monday.
VEEP ROLLOUT DESIGNED TO ECLIPSE CLINTONS: In addition to giving some convention-eve energy to Obama’s campaign, a late-in-the-week rollout would have another benefit in the eyes of his loyalists. It could help overshadow the other dominant story heading into Denver, which is the long-running drama over how Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and her husband, former president Bill Clinton, and Clinton’s supporters will handle themselves during the week (Balz, Washignton Post). An announcement late in the week suggests that the Obama campaign believes that, in an era of 24/7 coverage and increasingly shortened news cycles, sustaining interest in a vice presidential rollout has become increasingly difficult. Four years ago, the Democratic nominee, Sen. John F. Kerry, choreographed a five-day rollout of his choice of then-Sen. John Edwards. Media attention spans today are considerably shorter.
Presidential
HALLOWELL ORGANIZING FOR McCAIN: Jennifer Hallowell, Republican presidential candidate John McCain’s Great Lakes regional campaign manager, is known for turning Democratic political turf to Republicans (Price, Detroit News). She’s credited, for example, with spearheading the $3 million Indiana voter contact plan that helped get 230,000 new Republicans to the polls and sweep Republican Mitch Daniels into the governorship in 2004 — unseating a sitting Hoosier governor for the first time in more than 100 years. And in 2006, when Democrats were expected to oust Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi in a Big Blue year, Hallowell set up a team that knocked on 10,000 doors and made 200,000 calls. Brizzi, who won by 52-48 percent, was the only Republican to win countywide in Indiana. That kind of delivery earned the 34-year-old Hallowell a "Rising Star" award by Campaigns and Elections magazine in 2007, and a spot on the Howey Politics Indiana list of the 50 most influential people in Indiana politics in 2006 and 2007. "She knows how to organize campaigns in tough environments," said Indiana political analyst Brian Howey. "She’s repeatedly delivered over her career." And delivery under tough environments is precisely what McCain is counting on from her in the three states Hallowell oversees: Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin. "It’s our job to take the senator’s message, the overall plan, and determine how to best apply that to our states," said Hallowell, whose Midwest office is based in Farmington Hills. "On a day-to-day basis, we are not only identifying opportunities with voters, but we are also building a comprehensive overall plan that works across all departments, whether it’s political, communications, fundraising, or the e-campaign," she added.
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Indiana Governor
JLT, DANIELS USE DUALING JOB STATS: When monthly jobs numbers hit in July, Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Jill Long Thompson reported Indiana had lost 17,900 jobs (Kelly, Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). The number perplexed Gov. Mitch Daniels and his staff, whose own numbers indicated Indiana had made a small gain of 1,500 jobs from May to June. Technically neither campaign was wrong. Such is life on the campaign trail in a faltering economy. Both groups are quoting valid statistics, although they use different methods to gauge slightly different things. Cam Savage, spokesman for the Daniels campaign, said the Republican governor consistently uses total non-farm employment, seasonally adjusted. This statistic is arrived at by surveying businesses with payrolls every month to see how many employees they have. When the number goes down, it counts as a lost job. It does not include self-employed Hoosiers. “I think that’s just the standard nationwide,” Savage said. “I don’t think there is any particular reason.” Using this statistic, the state lost 16,500 jobs from July 2007 to July 2008. But the state has gained 27,800 jobs overall since Daniels took office in January 2005. Jeff Harris, spokesman for the Long Thompson campaign, said it prefers to use statistics from the civilian labor force survey. This is a survey of people – not businesses – on their employment status. “We think civilian labor force is more accurate because it’s a better reflection of Hoosiers’ ability to find employment,” Harris said. Using this method, 29,063 fewer people were employed in July 2008 than July 2007. But overall, 29,660 more people are employed in the state since January 2005 when Daniels took over.
DANIELS TO ANNOUNCE JOBS IN LIGONIER: Gov. Mitch Daniels will join executives from Millennium Industries for an economic development announcement in Ligonier this afternoon (Howey Politics Indiana).
SKILLMAN TO ANNOUNCE JOBS IN PLAINFIELD: Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman will join executives from life sciences logistics provider MD Logistics at 9:30 a.m. Wednesday in Plainfield for an economic development announcement. (Howey Politics Indiana)
THOMPSON TO DISCUSS PRIVATIZATION AT STATEHOUSE: Jill Long Thompson and Dennie Oxley will be hold a news conference at 2:30 today at the Statehouse to discuss the Daniels administration’s mismanagement of state government and announce another part of their "One Indiana Plan" to rebuild Indiana’s economy. (Howey Politics Indiana)
JLT COMMENTS ON DELPHI: Delphi Electronics and Safety President Jeff Owens said employees will be informed by August 29, and the Kokomo operations, which employ 2,500 of the department’s 3,340 salaried employees, will be the hardest hit. Kokomo-based Delphi employees have technical or business backgrounds, with the majority holding at least a bachelor’s degree. "It is my hope that one day Hoosiers will stop hearing announcements like this, but under a Mitch Daniels administration, that doesn’t seem possible," said Jill Long Thompson. "Indiana’s economy is clearly struggling and Hoosier families are hurting, yet this administration keeps telling us all is well. Sadly, Kokomo joins a growing list of communities that have fallen victim to the Bush-Daniels economy. It is time for new leadership that will fight to grow our economy and protect good- paying jobs all across our state."
DUOH! WAGNER SAYS DANIELS MIGHT CHOOSE A DEM: It’s easy to wonder about the odds that Sen. Evan Bayh will be named Sen. Barack Obama’s vice presidential running mate. But let’s wonder about what happens next: What if Bayh gets picked, and what if the ticket gets elected to the White House in November? (Ronco, South Bend Tribune). What happens could be much more complicated, said Jennifer Wagner, a former Indiana Democratic Party spokeswoman. In some cases, governors will name a replacement of the departing senator’s party, out of respect, Wagner said. "Mitch Daniels might name a Democrat," she said. "I don’t know if that’s likely." Or, if Long Thompson wins the November election, Bayh and Daniels could strike a deal where Bayh would get some say about his successor, Wagner said.
Congress
LUGAR HEADING TO GEORGIA: In the aftermath of Russia ’s incursion into Georgia , U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar is embarking on a two-week, nine-nation mission that focuses on the trans-Atlantic alliance’s energy security. Lugar will meet with officials in France, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Romania, Hungary, Ukraine, Germany, and at NATO and EU headquarters in Brussels .“It is time for the trans-Atlantic community to establish a credible energy security strategy that diversifies energy sources for all Europe, establishes a collective framework to work with Russia , and refuses to tolerate the use of energy as an instrument of coercion,” Lugar said at a speech in April. (Howey Politics Indiana)
DELEGATION SEEKS HELP FOR RV SECTOR: The Indiana congressional delegation, led by U.S. Reps. Joe Donnelly and Mark Souder, submitted a letter to the U.S. Department of Labor secretary in support of Indiana’s National Emergency Grant (NEG) application to help workers who have been affected by the large-scale dislocations in the RV industry. “Many Hoosier families are suffering as mainstays in the RV industry continue to lay off workers,” Donnelly said (Howey Politics Indiana). “Congressman Souder and I have worked to provide these families with some relief by organizing worker transition workshops, but federal funds are also needed to help these families get back on their feet. I encourage the Department of Labor to approve our National Emergency Grant as soon as possible.” “I remain very concerned for the families of these communities who have been affected by cutbacks in the RV industry,” Souder said. “These workers need timely and effective assistance. In addition to the transition workshops that Congressman Donnelly and I held, we are asking the Department of Labor to act quickly and approve the National Emergency Grant so that this community can continue to overcome the current challenges it faces.”

State
HEARING ON COAL GASIFICATION PLANT NEXT MARCH: It will be March before state regulators conduct hearings important to the financing of a proposed Southwestern Indiana coal-to-gas plant (Evansville Courier & Press). However, opponents of the $2 billion plant, which would produce a "pipeline quality" substitute for natural gas, aren’t waiting until then to voice their concerns. Tuesday, the developer asked the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission for more time for the repeatedly delayed proposal so it can complete negotiations with utilities that would buy the gas. The commission agreed to postpone its Nov. 24 hearings until March 9. The hearings will last three days. Also Tuesday, two groups opposed to the project met with a group of concerned citizens billing itself as Spencer County Citizens for Quality of Life. The gathering near Rockport, Ind., was the first public meeting of the group, which is working with the Evansville-based Valley Watch and Citizens Action Coalition of Indiana.
19 COUNTIES DON’T MEET AIR STANDARDS: Clark, Floyd and a dozen other Indiana counties would be added by federal officials to the five counties suggested by the state as violating a new standard for tiny soot particles that can cause respiratory distress in children and the elderly (Louisville Courier-Journal). The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said yesterday that 19 Indiana counties are among 215 counties in 25 states it plans to list as violating the new standard for pollution particles smaller than 2.5 micrometers — one-30th the diameter of a human hair. In an earlier request to EPA officials, the Indiana Department of Environmental Management had recommended that just five counties — Knox, Lake, Marion, Tippecanoe and Vanderburgh — be listed as nonattainment of the new, more protective soot standard. In addition to Clark and Floyd, the 19 Indiana counties listed by the EPA are Dearborn, Dubois, Gibson, Hamilton, Hendricks, Jefferson, Johnson, Knox, Lake, Marion, Morgan, Pike, Porter, Spencer, Tippecanoe, Vanderburgh and Warrick.
CHAMBER HIGHLIGHTS JOBS: Protecting recent improvements to the state’s business tax climate and further shaping property tax policies are critical components for Indiana to stay competitive economically. This is the overriding theme of the seventh public policy letter from the Indiana Chamber of Commerce Board of Directors to the state’s two major party candidates for governor (Howey Politics Indiana). “If tax levels and taxpayer responsibilities aren’t balanced to promote economic development, companies may not choose to locate here or stay here,” asserts Indiana Chamber President Kevin Brinegar. “And no one wants to see Hoosiers out of work or businesses going elsewhere. We’ve taken the positive steps of eliminating the inventory tax and corporate gross receipts tax and making permanent the venture capital tax credit. Still, we must build on these efforts in order to better compete for job expansion and relocation – especially with the economy now tightening across the country." Reducing or eliminating taxes on job-producing machinery and equipment should be a high priority.
Cities
BALLARD TO NAME PARKS CHIEF: Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard is expected to name a new parks superintendent this afternoon. Indiana Barrister is reporting it will be Stuart Lowry of the White River State Park.
ELKHART CUTS THE ARTS: The kids in Elkhart Civic Theatre’s youth theater summer camp may pay $200 instead of $100 to participate (Fulmer, Elkhart Truth). The popular Concerts on the Green may go away. The Elkhart County Symphony Orchestra may stop visiting elementary and middle schools. The Genesis program, which funds arts groups in and around Elkhart, has been eliminated and groups are looking for dollars elsewhere. In July, Mayor Dick Moore took a hard look at the city’s financial future and determined that budget cuts were a 2009 survival necessity. First on the chopping block was the Genesis arts grants which, for more than 20 years, had provided assistance to many programs developed by local nonprofit organizations. Throughout the arts community, this was not a popular decision. Although most groups admitted it was not a complete surprise, the consensus was that a more gradual cutback would have been easier to deal with in the long run. "We struggled right up to the end," said Arvis Dawson, the mayor’s executive assistant. "The mayor knows how greatly this affects our quality of life. If we get into a situation where we are able to bring back (eliminated) programs, this will be one of the first to come back. Some programs might be looked at individually." Meanwhile, he said, "If the programs are important to the community, people will step up and support them."
HENRY NIXES MERIT BOARD: Mayor Tom Henry will veto a bill today intended to give firefighters more say in how they are hired, promoted, disciplined and fired (Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). Henry is scheduled this morning to announce vetoing the City Council’s ordinance to create a merit board for the Fort Wayne Fire Department. It will be his first veto. In a letter dated today, Henry writes that he opposes the creation of the merit board because he believes the Board of Public Safety "has done an outstanding job acting as the citizen oversight for both the police and fire departments."
3 CITY BUS PLAN FLOATED: During a 90-minute meeting between Regional Bus Authority officials and the Hammond City Council on Tuesday, RBA President Dennis Rittenmeyer floated a plan that would lead to RBA oversight of the city’s bus service over a three- or four-year period (Times of Northwest Indiana). The plan would require the City Council to avoid eliminating transit system funding as it considers next year’s budget. Council President Dan Repay has made public his recommendation to Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr. that the bus service be cut from the 2009 budget. Repay argues cutting the cost of the service, estimated at about $1 million this year, would help plug the city’s 2009 shortfall. On Tuesday, Repay said the gap could be as high as $1.7 million. In turn, McDermott revealed his proposed budget will fund the bus service at the 2008 level. Though he supports cutting the bus service, McDermott has said he would not stand in the way of whatever decision the council makes. Last week, 4th District Councilwoman Kim Poland asked for a meeting with Rittenmeyer on the bus issue. Rittenmeyer said the plan he proposed Tuesday was crafted in recent months by RBA board member Stephen Adik. It offers no immediate bailout to Hammond to save the bus service should the council vote it out. Instead, the plan requires the cooperation of Gary and East Chicago.
TERRE HAUTE TOLD TO CUT BUDGET: Scissors are needed for Vigo County’s 2009 budget, and it is now in the hands of department leaders to determine where cuts can be made (Greninger, Terre Haute Tribune-Star). Last week, the budget committee of the County Council sent a written notice to all county departments that budget submissions for next year must be cut by 7.5 percent of the approved 2008 budget. “We had a meeting in June and told department heads and elected officials we were looking at less revenues and we asked them to take their 2008 budgets and reduce them by 5 percent for next year. Some of them did reduce their budgets, but a lot of them did not,” said Councilman Mark Bird, chairman of the council’s budget committee.
MADISON CUTS BUDGET: Three city department heads offered up $34,325 in cuts to their budget requests for next year, enabling the City Council members to have a slightly smaller spending plan than they had expected (Madison Courier). The proposed budget will have its first reading at the City Council meeting at 5:30 p.m. today. The first reading is an introduction of an ordinance. The budget and accompanying salary ordinance will be discussed at the second reading Sept. 2. With the reduction in department requests, the council was able to leave in funding for outside organizations. The council increased Channel 15’s request, cut the amount the Lide White Boys and Girls Club had sought and funded several other requests. The budget proposal includes River Crest Golf Course, but Mayor Tim Armstrong has said it might not remain in if the city cannot reach a satisfactory lease agreement with the owner, American Electric Power.
GOODNIGHT WANTS SAY ON BOARD: Kokomo Mayor Greg Goodnight is just one of seven votes on the Howard County Recycling District Board, and that’s just one of his frustrations (Kokomo Tribune). The board, made up of four Howard County representatives, two city of Kokomo representatives and one rep from Greentown, controls annual tax and grant revenue of more than $900,000. The majority of that revenue comes from city taxpayers, however, and Tuesday, Goodnight was fighting for a right to help pick the next recycling district director. Marla Vechey, director for the past 31/2 years, announced Tuesday she plans to return to school next year to pursue a master’s degree. Her resignation will create an opening in a job that pays $52,000 a year, with a take-home car and county health-care benefits. At Tuesday’s meeting, Paul Raver, a county commissioner and recycling board president, was ready to choose Kokomo Common Councilman Ralph Baer, fellow commissioner Dave Trine and Greentown board president Joyce Higginbottom to recommend Vechey’s successor. “Is there any reason the city administration couldn’t be involved in this?” Goodnight asked before a vote could be taken. “It would be nice, since we were excluded from the last one, that we could be involved in this one.”
Counties
VANDERBURGH COMMISSIONERS DEFIANT: In remarks alternately apologetic and bristling with defiance, the Vanderburgh County Commissioners told a packed meeting room Tuesday night they regret passing an abortion-related ordinance without public input (Evansville Courier & Press). But Commissioners President Jeff Korb, Bill Nix and Troy Tornatta declined to rescind the ordinance, saying after about an hour of public comment that they had heard nothing to change their minds. The doctor also must inform the patient where she can receive follow-up care in case of complications. The ordinance provides for no fines or penalties. "It’s not an anti-abortion issue for us. It was a health issue in our community for us," Korb explained Tuesday. "And we just went ahead and voted on it." Korb, Nix and Tornatta passed the ordinance on first and final reading on Aug. 5 in about 45 seconds, without discussion and without mentioning the word "abortion." Although the ordinance is titled "An Ordinance Concerning Abortion Provider Patient Safety," it appeared on the County Commissioners’ public meeting agenda as "CO. 08-08-018 Patient Safety Ordinance."
HARRISON TO RENOVATE OLD HOSPITAL: Harrison County leaders are a step closer to redeveloping the old county hospital campus for government offices (Louisville Courier-Journal). The commissioners signed a $97,229 contract late Monday with RQAW Corp. of Indianapolis to prepare a preliminary design for reusing newer portions of the former hospital building and two nearby medical office buildings in Corydon. The contract calls for the architectural and engineering consultants to complete a "schematic" design that would lay out the scope of future work and provide cost estimates.
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