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By BRIAN A. HOWEY
INDIANAPOLIS - With each applause line, the seven letters in the stands at Roberts Stadium in Evansville would rise - I-N-D-I-A-N-A. And as the noise gradually subsided, and Barack Obama spoke again, the letters would sink back into the crowd. The memorable scenes for Democrats, reporters and searching Republicans and independents fill our collective journals.
Lines forming at 3 a.m. to see Hillary Clinton in Terre Haute. Bill Clinton with John Gregg at Vincennes University. John Mellencamp singing "Small Town" to Obama supporters as the "bitter" controversy faded. Obama’s quiet town hall at Garfield Park a few hundred yards from a momument to Confederate Civil War soldiers who took their last breaths there.
There was Obama sinking buckets at the Indiana Basketball Hall of Fame with George McGinnis, playing a pickup game in Kokomo and visiting Hinkle Fieldhouse on Election Day. And Hillary sipping a shot and an Old Style at Bronko’s in Crown Point. There was Obama recalling Dr. King’s "arc of the moral universe" in Fort Wayne on the 40th anniversary of the assassination. They appeared at VFW halls, at a Tipton County homestead where the Obama bloodlines once flowed. There was Hillary Clinton with an animated Evan Bayh at the Wigwam a few blocks away from Anderson’s hulking rust belt. Obama showing up at Nick’s in Bloomington.
It was an amazing, dizzying, incredible seven weeks, shadowed by the spirit of the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, who was invoked often. Hoosiers remembered what he did 40 years ago. People will be talking about 2008 some 40 or 50 years from now. His widow, Ethel, recited a poem at the Kennedy-King Memorial on April 4: "Two heroic hearts, who for a short time, traveled toward the sun. And singed the vivid air … with their honor."
With the Hoosier air singed by the campaign, the smoke has barely cleared.
Howey Politics Indiana suggested the Hoosier state could be a battleground in late 2007, though we thought it more likely to be the Republicans, not the Democrats. But hours after Super Tuesday as Hillary Clinton began sinking into a 12-primary defeat hole, we told you this: For the first time since 1992, Indiana Democratic voters will have a contested presidential primary that will draw in the candidates and flood city squares, gymnasiums and schools with fervent supporters. Perhaps it will be as stimulating as the granddaddy of them all in 1968.
And in our March 21 edition, working off a rare leaked memo from the Obama campaign, Howey Politics Indiana was the first to declare Indiana as the "last swing state" - the last true up-for-grabs battleground, or, as Obama would put it at one of the three press conferences he held here (on April 11) "the potential tiebreaker."
When it was all said and done in the early morning hours of May 7 with Clinton’s minuscule victory, Indiana was essentially her last hurrah. And even then, with Gary Mayor Rudy Clay holding Lake County returns to deprive her of the primetime TV network momentum she so desperately needed, the victory was pyrrhic. The super delegate dam was compromised the week before when Joe Andrew switched sides and turned the topic away from Rev. Jeremiah Wright, augmented by U.S. Rep. Baron Hill’s courageous endorsement of Obama that stood in stark contrast to the people of his Southern Indiana district. With Obama declaring victory in North Carolina, the Clinton’s stewed, harrassed Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott, and saw any hope of political salvation diminish in Indiana.
As Hoosier Democrats gathered last weekend, the buzz was still what happened to Indiana in March, April and May. The Clinton supporters can only lament how only if Hillary had found her Hoosier groove in February when she lost her way in a terrible losing streak. For Barack Obama, Indiana was resilience. After enduring the worst two weeks of his campaign with the Rev. Wright fiasco, he had come within 14,000 votes, essentially putting a giant asterisk behind the Clinton win. The delegate count was a wash, with Clinton coming out only a handful better. That following week, U.S. Reps. Joe Donnelly and Pete Visclosky joined the super delegate tide toward Obama. And by June 3, it was over. America had its first minority presidential nominee, eclipsing the Hillary gender dream of getting their first, buoyed by millions of women. Four days later, Clinton suspended her campaign and endorsed her bitter rival, though she said the glass ceiling had "18 million cracks."
When the history of the 2008 campaign is written in dozens of future books, the Hoosier spring will be an integral chapter. Perhaps, as well, will be the Hoosier fall as Obama seeks to become the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson to carry the state.
What impressions and revelations should be mined as the drama is still fresh?
There are the words of the candidates, like Obama talking about "when politics became small as the problems became big" and he felt that people "want change in Washington." He said the challenges are more urgent because the problems facing the people of Indiana "are growing by the day. I’m not telling you anything you don’t know. We are here today looking for an answer to the same question: Where is that America today? How many years? 
How many decades do we talk and talk and talk about these problems while Washington has done nothing or tinkered around the edges? Or in some cases, made them worse. There is no doubt these problems require fundamental shifts. The question is whether we shed our cynicism and fear and doubt and we reach for what we know is possible. It won’t be easy. Change in America is never easy. That’s why a black guy born in Hawaii can win this race. I will never forget that the only reason I’m standing here is that someone, somewhere stood up for what they believed. Stood up for me when it was hard. Stood up for me when it wasn’t popular. Then a few people stood up, and then a few more stood up. Now is our turn,"
And Clinton, speaking in hushed tones at the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner 48 hours before the election: "There is no doubt in my mind we can repair the damage we will inherit. I carry the dreams of people all across the country. People who embrace hard work and opportunity, who never wavered in the face of adversity; who never stopped believing. And tonight across Indiana and across America, teachers are grading papers and nurses are caring for the sick. They need a president who listens to them. Waitresses are pouring coffee and police officers are standing guard. They need a president who stands for them. Small business owners figure out how to grow their companies and pay their employees. They need a president who delivers for them. And our brave men and women in uniform, some on the deserts of Iraq and in the mountains of Afghanistan, some on their third and fourth tours, deserve a commander-in-chief who will bring them home and take care of them."
For me, the parallels to 1968, when I was 12 years old and just coming of age, help accentuate the changes and the mainstays. I remember my father, an editor with the Peru Daily Tribune, coming home one night and telling us he had spent the day campaigning with Sen. Eugene McCarthy. Or the South Bend Tribune’s Jack Colwell getting mobbed with RFK to the point that the senator’s cuff links were ripped away and he needed emergency dental work in Mishawaka. In 2008, the entire relationship between press and candidate was much more guarded. Most journalists could only get 10 minutes of interview time with Clinton and Obama. There was no whistlestop campaigning; no spontaenous town-to-town gladhanding. Clinton and Obama were rock stars this time, playing to Hoosier arenas or setting up well-choregographed stages like Clinton and Bayh did on April 12 at Allison Transmission and AM General.
In 1968, Gov. Roger Branigan was the favorite son, running (and finishing second) as a stand-in for Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey. Forty years later, it was Evan Bayh who became the Hoosier son. Our analysis on February 21 came under the headline: "Evan Bayh’s predicament," in which we laid out the stakes for Bayh in forging a win for Clinton. "Bayh hasn’t been earnestly tested since his first statewide races in 1986 and 1988. Now he faces a challenge, unless Clinton loses big in both Texas and Ohio and the race fizzles before it gets to Indiana."
It didn’t.
In our Feb. 14 edition, Bayh explained, "I am hopeful that we will play an important role and the reason I am hopeful is that I have great confidence in the people of our state. Our values, our common sense, our judgment. We don’t all tend to get caught up in the media hype, if I can say that. Instead, people want to focus on who can deliver the changes we need the most that matter in their daily lives. They want our nation and state to get back on the right track. So, it’s that Hoosier common sense, decency and practicality that I think our nation could use right now. So I think it’s good we’re going to play a role in selecting the nominee for president."
While Clinton arrived in Indiana a few days after Obama kicked off the campaign sequence here on March 15 in Republican Plainfield, and seemed to have some momentum with primary wins in Ohio and Texas (though she would lose the caucus there), her campaign often teetered on oblivion. In Mark Curry’s April 24 analysis (Clinton at the Crisis Point), he explained: By every metric, the New York senator should already be down and out. Pledged delegates: Obama. Popular vote: Obama. Number of states won: Obama. But the nation’s former first lady, and her millions of supporters, refuse to surrender. Fresh from hard-fought victory in Pennsylvania, and apparently ceding North Carolina to her opponent, Hillary Clinton is mustering every resource to convince Hoosiers - and the country - that she is the best candidate to battle John McCain in the general election this November. Situated in the heartland that borders Obama’s home in Illinois, Indiana is Hillary’s last relevant opportunity to demonstrate the mettle of her campaign. With 72 delegates at stake, Indiana is likely the last remaining battleground. She must win here if she intends to dominate the party convention in Denver come August. To that end, Hoosiers can expect nothing short of a political spectacular unseen in these parts since the days of Bobby Kennedy.
Bayh was able to attract a number of key endorsements - John Gregg, B. Patrick Bauer, Dan Parker, Joe Kernan, Judy O’Bannon and 40 county chairmen - many following his lead because they thought it was his best path to a vice presidential nod. He cited his organization’s "seamless" integration with the Clinton campaign as a pivotal development. HPI writer Ryan Nees observed: The Clinton camp has relied primarily on Bayh and state party chairman Dan Parker to secure endorsements from legislators, mayors, and county chairs in an effort that has encompassed personal phone calls, dinner dates, and sometimes acrimonious arm-twisting. The covert organizing has miffed Obama supporters and impartial party leaders hoping that neutrality will mitigate post-primary fractures in the party.
The Clinton trio - Hillary, Bill and Chelsea - went on to visit more than 100 Hoosier cities, many of which had never witnessed a presidential candidate or a former president. Bill Clinton concentrated on small towns like Hartford City and Martinsville. Chelsea hit the college campuses. Hillary did the arenas and the policy events.
Even though Clinton’s win was by only 1.14 percent, Bayh emerged intact and on some of the Obama vice presidential short lists. While he placed his face and name on the line, insisting that Hillary Clinton has "a spine of steel" in her first Indiana TV ad, he never denigrated Obama, the man whose emergence in November 2006 essentially forced a pragmatic Bayh out of the race in a stunning move a month later.
There were other moments that lifted eyebrows. One occurred on April 8 with a fascinating trail going back to 1968: Bill Ruckleshaus’ endorsement of Obama. "Senator Obama’s ability to attract not only Democrats, but also Republicans and 
Independents, makes him uniquely qualified to build the broad coalitions needed to address our nation’s challenges," said Ruckleshaus, who ran for the Senate against Birch Bayh with the Nixon ticket in 1968, then defied him during the Watergate scandal five years later. “Senator Obama’s integrity and commitment to ethics reform give me confidence that he’s the best candidate to bring transparency to Washington, D.C.” Another was former conservative Notre Dame law professor Doug Kmiec, who also endorsed Obama.
Then came former congressman Lee Hamilton’s wise voice, who on March ** predicted the changing contours of American politics. "The beginning point for me is to ask the question, ‘What kind of leadership does the country need at this particular juncture in its history?’ Hamilton asked. "I think the country is very evenly divided. I think it’s very difficult to get things done. We’ve got enormous challenges both domestic and foreign. It’s also an environment in the country that has very sharp partisanship. So I support the election of Sen. Obama for several reasons. He has the best opportunity to create a sense of national unity and to transcend the divisions in the country. He’s a person that strikes me as one who seeks the politics of consensus. I believe the political skill most needed in the country today … is the ability to bring people together; not to drive them apart."
In the April 27 edition of Howey Politics Indiana, we observed: By early this week, you could almost feel the air rushing out of Barack Obama’s campaign. While the Howey-Gauge Poll of April 23-24 had Obama with a narrow 47-45 percent lead over Hillary Clinton, later surveys, including an April 28 SurveyUSA Poll had Clinton surging to a 52-43 percent lead. It came a day before Obama conducted a press conference in North Carolina and denounced the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. The sense on the ground was that a shift was under way. Within 12 hours, Obama picked up two stunning endorsements. The first was from U.S. Rep. Baron Hill, who ran counter to 10 of the county chairs in the 9th CD that endorsed Clinton. The Obama dilemma with Rev. Wright actually prompted Hill to act. "His comments regarding statements made by Reverend Wright showed me another aspect of Senator Obama’s leadership, a strength of character and commitment to our nation that transcends the personal. One of the tests of a true leader is his ability and willingness to come to a new conclusion based on new events. Senator Obama did just that yesterday."
But the real stunner came when former Democratic National Chairman Joe Andrew reversed course and endorsed Obama. "I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point that it’s now bad for the Democratic Party," Andrew said "While I was hopeful that a long, contested primary season would invigorate our party, the polls show that the tone and temperature of the race is now hurting us."
Howey-Gauge also noted that gas prices had gone from 1 percent in top issues in our February poll to 12 percent in April. That set off the Obama-Clinton gas wars: Clinton proposing a three-month federal gas tax holiday; Obama denouncing it as a "gimmick" while holding a press confernece in front of Phillips66 gas pumps. "Few costs are rising faster than the ones at the pump," Obama said. "To most Americans, it’s a huge problem bordering on a crisis. Here in Indiana, gas costs $3.60 a gallon. Last year alone, the price of oil has shot up almost 80 percent, reaching a record high, which explains why the top oil companies made $123 billion last year." Obama accused "Washington politicians" dating back to President Nixon of avoiding finding solutions to alternative energy "when they had the chance."
It was an issue that exit polls eseentially indicated Obama had won. Coming on the heels of the Rev. Wright denunciation, it was gas that got him back in the game as the race see-sawed.
Hamilton’s remarks of a divided nation were only a precursor to Clinton’s razor thin victory in a primary where 1.7 million Hoosier voted, including 1.3 million who voted Democratic. But the real irony was predicted at the April 29 Howey-Gauge Poll that showed Clinton and Obama locked in a 46-46 percent tie. It would be Republicans, we accurately predicted, who would descide the Democratic primary. And of all Republicans, it was Rush Limbaugh who might have prodded the 14,000 difference as he sought "chaos." Obama campaign manager David Plouffe acknowledged Limbaugh’s measureable impact.
Despite Obama’s loss, his organization opened a new era of campaigning. Former Fort Wayne mayor Graham Richard called it a confluence of "grassroots meets netroots" inspired by Facebook. At my Broad Ripple home, the Obama campaign made six touches: two canvassing calls, a direct mail piece with the Evansville I-N-D-I-A-N-A featured on the front; a door hanger, and two phone calls, including the offer of a ride on Election Day. HPI Washington writer Mark Curry observed in an April 17 analysis: Obama arrives at a nexus of message, philosophy and technology that thus far has served to further his career. But he has not arrived alone. With him are thousands of campaign workers and volunteers attracted to Obama’s notion that ideological labels are "old politics," that the familiar means to success in Washington is no longer working, that, in fact, "we can do better." The Obama campaign relied on elements like Thiessen Polygons, means of increasing bandwidth, methods of capturing and parsing data, and using graphic overlays for Geographic Information Systems (GIS).
The Clinton-Obama race also revealed the Indiana Democratic Party’s dirty little secret. A number of editors and political operatives had told us that many Democrats just wouldn’t be able to vote for a black man for president. MSNBC exit polling revealed that 15 percent (10 percent white and 5 percent black) saw race as a reason for their vote. Of the whites, Clinton would carry 78 percent.
If Clinton’s Pennsylvania win presented her with the last Hoosier opportunity, the Keystone loss was an awakening for Obama, who quickly took a hands-on role when in smoother times he delegated much of the logistics to others. While he always wrote his speeches and signed off on his TV commercials, Obama personally re-engaged in Indiana. He shifted from the arena town halls to more intimate settings, like Garfield Park or drinking Budweisers at a St. Joseph County VFW Hall. Or, as HPI put it on April 28, "When in doubt in Indiana, play hoops."
Yet Obama ended his spring Hoosier experience with a 21,000-person rally at the American Legion Mall in downtown Indianapolis on the eve of the primary, perhaps the largest political rally since the Ku Klux Klan took over the state eight decades before (though veteran Indianapolis journalist Gerry LaFollette believes Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 rally on Monument Circle was bigger). "I’m not out to win an election," said Obama, who would lose Indiana but win this poltical war. "I’m here to change the country."
Tags: Barack Obama, Baron Hill, Bill Clinton, Evan Bayh, Hillary Clinton, Joe Andrew
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This entry was written by and posted on June 30, 2008 at 10:00 am and filed under HPI Weekly. Bookmark the permalink. Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post.
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