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By BRIAN A. HOWEY
INDIANAPOLIS - We’ve counted six Hoosiers who have made one or more published veepstakes lists over the first six months of this year. Some names, like Gov. Mitch Daniels, make zero sense to us in practical application. Others like the rumored Obama-Lugar ticket seem far-fetched. Here’s our current read on things, subject to vast change between now and convention season late this summer.
Democrats
Sen. Evan Bayh: As the Obama campaign pours over the maps and its strategy of putting red states into play, the conversation when it comes to Indiana’s 11 Electoral College votes would almost certainly include Bayh. While he backed Hillary Clinton in the Indiana primary, he did so with supreme respect for Barack Obama. 
His political tentacles reach into Iowa and New Hampshire, where his own presidential campaign trained dozens of operatives and he established relations with many local legislators and other party officials. Some believe those alliances in New Hampshire helped Clinton win there. He certainly put her in play in Indiana. Without Bayh, there is no way Clinton would have won. Bayh has run five general election races in Indiana, winning the first two in 1986 and 1988 by 8 and 6 percent, following by his gubernatorial re-elect at 25 percent, and his two Senate races at 29 and 24 percent. With the exception of his last Senate campaign, Bayh has had long coattails in Indiana, where Democrats were able to pick up additional Indiana House seats. He is squeaky clean on the ethics front. He is credible on military affairs, having served on the Armed Services Committee. Republicans might depict him as evading military service, but 1974 high school graduates, having lived through the Vietnam debacle, weren’t inclined to serve in the U.S. military, particularly while it was cutting back. Bayh would also resonate with independent voters in neighboring states like Michigan and Ohio. Democratic blogger Alan Katz observed on May 7, "By helping Senator Clinton win Indiana’s Democratic primary, Senator Bayh has created a new opportunity: running for vice president on an Obama-Bayh ticket. Most significantly, he’s a proven vote getter in a red state who appeals to the working class voters Senator Obama has been losing to Senator Clinton. His selection as a running mate by Senator Obama would be a clear signal to these voters that they would neither be ignored nor forgotten in an Obama administration. As an added bonus, turning to Senator Bayh to complete the Democratic ticket would be a magnanimous and potent gesture to the Clinton campaign. Senator Bayh was an early endorser of Senator Clinton. They are long-time friends and close allies. He campaigned tirelessly on her behalf in Indiana. An Obama-Bayh ticket would not be as unifying as an Obama-Clinton teaming, but it would still go far in binding the party together again after the long and sometimes vicious primary fight." Odds: 10 to 1.
Sen. Richard Lugar: First, Lugar is too old to be McCain’s vice presidential nominee. McCain needs a younger running mate. Prior to the May primary, we were talking with a reporter at NPR and the subject of Lugar’s relationship with Barack Obama came up. "You know about the rumors," the reporter said. No, what? "An Obama-Lugar ticket." Get out! Actually, there is some logic behind the thought. Obama has talked about ending the politics of usual in Washington. So what better way than to pick a Republican vice president? The last president from Illinois selected Andrew Johnson to help bind up the nation’s wounds. Second, he and Lugar have a mutually warm relationship, to the point that of the five phone calls Lugar got on his birthday earlier this spring (his brother, Gov. Daniels, Bud Gohman and Rex Early) the fifth was from Obama on the campaign trail. There are some who believe that Obama needs an experienced Washington hand with considerarable foreign exposure. Lugar fits all those bills. And Lugar has been discussed in the veepstakes going back to 1972. It would be the supreme irony that a Democrat would finally make the call. We think this is a highly unlikely scenario. As you can read in Jack Colwell’s column (page 1) in today’s edition, Lugar is committed to supporting McCain, though numerous Capitol Hill sources depict the Lugar-McCain relationship as frosty. It would also put him at crosshairs with Gov. Daniels’ re-elect (though he and Obama really do feed off the same "change agent" energy). Third, he’s a Republican. A loyal Republican. Lugar has repeatedly swatted away any notion of leaving the Senate, where he believes he can serve the public better. However, after reading all the Iraq War books by people like Bob Woodward ("State of Denial"), Thomas Ricks ("Fiasco"), and Michael Gordon ("Cobra II"), and finding Lugar’s name barely mentioned despite his prescient warnings of Phase IV (as well as his alarm over the lack of a Bush-Cheney energy strategy), perhaps he should ponder an inside role in what we believe will be, perhaps, the most crucial four to eight years in shaping America’s role in the 21st Century. On the same day - June 3 - that Obama secured the nomination, GM closed four auto plants and the airlines (Brian: There’s something missing here), suggesting a critical pivot point in American history. Obama reaching out to include a Republican on the ticket would send a vivid signal and Lugar would not only be palatable to many Democrats, but would top our list of potential Republicans. If we make bad decisions on top of the tragic ones we’ve already made this young century on war and energy, America will not be the sole super power in 2020 and we could be an empire in decline by 2050. The idea of having Lugar’s voice steadily in a President Obama’s ear is a credible one, though extremely, extremely unlikely. Odds: 100 to 1
Tim Roemer: The former six-term Northern Indiana congressman voluntarily left Congress, but not before sponsoring the 9/11 Commission legislation and then serving on that bipartisan panel. He was a strong proponent for U.S. intelligence reform. He was an early backer of Obama and campaigned extensively in the Indiana primary. Roemer is relatively young, Catholic, and brings intelligence, national security and education credentials that could benefit Obama. Roemer is well known in Northern Indiana, but much less so south of Kokomo, so he wouldn’t have the degree of sway that Bayh would have when the "can he carry the state" calculation comes up. Many observers believe Roemer has an excellent chance at making an Obama cabinet. Odds 20 to 1
Lee Hamilton: Like Roemer, he’s a former Indiana congressman and 9/11 commissioner. He would fit the "wise old man" bringing maturity to the 46-year-old Obama’s ticket. Hamilton could put Indiana into play, particularly in the south, which largely rejected his candidacy in the Indiana primary with Hillary Clinton. Washington journalists like Lou Jacobson take an Obama-Hamilton seriously, but we think it’s unlikely. 100 to 1.
HPI’s Prediction: We see three names ahead of the Hoosiers on the list: Virginia Sen. James Webb, former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn, and Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill as our favorites. Webb would put Virginia in play and is a former secretary of the Navy, so he brings vivid national security credentials. His son also served in a combat role in Iraq, which could temper McCain’s strategy as painting Obama as lax on military service. Nunn heads in the Nuclear Threat Initiative and has played an integral role with Sen. Lugar on post-Soviet world security. Nunn would be in a position to strengthen Obama in the South. If Obama needs a female running mate to help bring Hillary’s vast array of support from that gender, McCaskill was an earnest and articulate defender of Obama on the cable news networks during the fiercest days of his battle with Clinton. The fact that Missouri is a swing state that President Bush carried with 55 percent in 2004 makes her selection promising. If we had to bet, it would be Obama-Webb.
Republicans
Rep. Mike Pence: The Hoosier congressman is a leading conservative who has parted with McCain on key issues, such as McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform. The two shared an infamous moment together at the Sorja Market in Baghdad on April 1, 2007. After McCain became the presumptive nominee, Pence urged him to make clear to conservatives where he stood on fiscal and life issues. Pence could very well be on McCain’s veep list, but the fact is, you have to go back to 1964 and the Goldwater-Miller ticket to find a House member making the final cut. Plus, the conservative split with McCain seems to have toned down substantially since February
Gov. Mitch Daniels: The governor has repeatedly said that 2008 would be his final political campaign. We first heard it the day before his 2007 re-election campaign kickoff. Actually, Daniels would make a great vice presidential candidate. But in doing so, he would leave the Indiana Republican Party in such a lurch that it might take a decade or so to dig out. Daniels would have to leave the gubernatorial ticket, which would all but cede the election to Jill Long Thompson. A McCain-Daniels ticket is a total pipedream. No odds.
HPI’s Prediction: A month ago, we would have been comfortable predicting a McCain-Romney ticket. Mitt Romney could help McCain in the West, where Obama is expected to make a play for states like New Mexico and Colorado. However, after watching the powerful gender tide that almost secured the Democratic nomination for Hillary Clinton, McCain almost certainly will ponder a female running mate. Of the Republicans available, young, attractive Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (an NRA member) is creating considerable buzz these days. Other top names include new Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and, heck, just for kicks Connecticutt independent Sen. Joe Lieberman (and, on both sides, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg). If we had to bet: McCain-Palin. At this point, we think the gender opportunity trumps geography.
Tags: Barack Obama, Evan Bayh, John McCain, Lee Hamilton, Mike Pence, Mitch Daniels, Richard Lugar, Tim Roemer
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This entry was written by and posted on June 12, 2008 at 1:05 pm and filed under HPI Weekly. Bookmark the permalink. Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post.
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