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By BRIAN A. HOWEY
INDIANAPOLIS - There were surreal moments for both the Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger gubernatorial campaigns before Indiana’s glass ceiling shattered. They began Tuesday afternoon when it became clear that there was a large Republican crossover into the Democratic primary. What would it mean? One campaign hand told HPI, "We’re flying blind." Thompson’s campaign had seen internal numbers that indicated an 11th hour 8 percent lead.
It was still instrument flight rules mid-day Wednesday, when Long Thompson, with a 7,200 vote lead, declared victory in Fort Wayne and Schellinger’s campaign in Indianapolis said the race was too close to call. "I believe I’m clearly the winner and I’m looking forward to the race against (Republican incumbent Gov.) Mitch Daniels in the fall,” Long Thompson said. "It was a little bit of a roller coaster, but it was well worth it to win."
Jill Long Thompson has an emotional reunion with United Steelworkers in Indianapolis after returning for the first time following her historic win on Wednesday. (HPI Photo by A. Walker Shaw)
But the Schellinger campaign was saying, not so fast. Tim Jeffers, campaign manager for Schellinger, issued the following statement on the election results: “This race is still too close to call. There are many precincts still uncounted, provisional ballots to count and sort through, and a re-canvass process that will likely show shifts in county vote totals. As we know, the election process is sometimes a lengthy one when elections are very, very close — but as Democrats, we believe every vote must count. It’s important that we protect the integrity of the election process, especially with this many new registered voters and record turnout."
Thompson added, "I expect this to be a very tough fight and I expect to win. What’s most pleasing is he (Gov. Daniels) has been running ads for a long time and people aren’t buying it. Voters want more than a flannel shirt and a connoisseur of tenderloin."
As with the Clinton-Obama presidential race, the gubernatorial race had momentum shifts after the Howey-Gauge Poll on April 23-24 showed Thompson with an 18-percent lead. At about that time, the Schellinger campaign shifted its phone calls to target female voters. By the last poll - by SurveyUSA, which had Thompson leading by 2 percent - her support among females was rapidly eroding. She had led among females by 23 percent but that eroded to 5 percent. In the Howey-Gauge Poll, Thompson had a 45-25 percent lead among white women and 45-15 percent among African-American women.
Another factor that drew the race closer was the Republican crossover. Schellinger had a 45 to 33 percent lead among Republicans in Howey-Gauge. Thus, when the GOP crossover moved from concept to reality, it threw the race into turmoil. Schellinger’s comeback was fueled by Republican crossover, as Howey-Gauge noted on April 29. In our poll, In House districts where the Republican was unopposed, the GOP crossover ballooned. In HD22, State Rep. Bill Ruppel received 3,651 votes; the Democrats received 4,500. In HD15, State Rep. Don Lehen polled 3,215 votes while Democrats Myron Sutton (6,572) and John Malan (3,035) feasted. In all, about 75 percent of Republicans voted in the Democratic primary and Schellinger clearly benefitted.
"It was staggering," said Gauge Market Research Pollster Holly Davis. "He definitely benefitted from the Republican crossover. Republicans nearly carried him to victory. I think they carried Hillary Clinton to victory."
By mid-evening Tuesday, Schellinger had pulled into a 50/50 tie with Thompson, with the race see-sawing by a few thousand votes until it stopped around midnight, awaiting the final 72 percent of the Lake County returns to report. It was Lake County that ultimately gave Thompson the final narrow lead. She was endorsed by the Steelworkers, and this was their turf. Thompson also received a key endorsement from Lake County Sheriff Roy Dominguez, who introduced her at the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner. There was also the under-the-radar animosity between U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky and the Indiana Democratic Party, which was clandestinely backing Schellinger. Lake County became payback time and Thompson benefitted, in part for the aforementioned elements and partly from the huge Obama turnout. In Howey-Gauge, Thompson also led among African-American males 57-6 percent.
"The polls were all over the place," said Bett Voorhies, Indiana political coordinator for the United Steelworkers. "There was quite a bit of movement in the final weeks." Asked how Thompson staved off the Schellinger charge, Voorhies said, "The Steelworkers. The bulk of our membership is from the Gary-East Chicago area. Our field program paid off. The program I had set up, my workers were doing what they had to do. We had 100 volunteers covering about 100 precincts." He was unsure of the Obama impact. "With our membership, we have not endorsed in the presidential because our membership is split," he said. "I don’t know if Obama had much of an effect or not. Our Steelworkers program was probably the biggest we’ve had in Indiana."
Voorhies said that Sheriff Dominguez played a significant role. "He has been a huge supporter of ours. I’m sure it swayed a lot of people. But we won this thing on the ground. At every Obama event, at every Hillary event, at every Bill event, we had Steelworker volunteers handing out literature. We were meeting 3,000 to 4,000 Democrats at a time. We had no paid media other than a little cable."
There was other movement in the race. Thompson did well in Northern Indiana where she had run in the 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts. There were a lot of undecideds who broke for Schellinger in Southern Indiana, said Holly Davis of Gauge Market Research, HPI’s polling partner. "He was able to capitalize things in the last week and a half. A lot of that was part of the Evan Bayh machine geared up and working. In a race where there were not two heavyweights, it was a baseline race with two candidates not well known."
Schellinger’s problem was timing. His name ID was minuscule going into the final two months of the campaign. He wasted most of 2007 when he could have been building name ID. The Schellinger campaign appeared to flail. At one point he debated himself before the Marion County Chairman’s Breakfast.
Had the campaign worked to get earned media and started its grassroots programs earlier, it might have made the difference.
Thompson enters the matchup with Gov. Daniels as a distinct underdog. In the February Howey-Gauge Poll, she trailed Daniels 56-33 percent. In April, Daniels had a 55-36 percent lead. But she will present some interesting contrasts and some problems. Had Schellinger won, it was likely that he and Daniels would have had a gentlemanly campaign. The governor has an aversion to going negative and has vowed not to do so. WTHR-TV analyst Peter Rusthoven told HPI at the Howey-Gauge Briefing, "She will get under his skin big time." Thompson had a propensity to go negative in her primary race against Schellinger and in the 2002 race against U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola, as well as her 1989 4th CD special election race against Republican Dan Heath.
There is also the prospect of a Democratic tidal wave. John McCain, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, only polled 77 percent against Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney in the Republican primary among those GOP voters who didn’t cross over. Democrats are vastly out-raising Republicans and out-polling them in primaries nationwide.
Thompson will have to sort through issues if she is to unite the Democratic Party. The party’s central committee was clearly hostile. At the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner she was only politely received. She extended an olive branch by paying homage to former Sen. Birch Bayh, who she credited for his landmark Title IX legislation that opened doors for her and other women. It might have been aimed at U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh and Indiana Democratic Chairman Dan Parker, who has favored Schellinger.
Tags: Brett Voorhies, Jill Long Thompson, JIm Schellinger, Mitch Daniels, Tim Jeffers
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