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By MARK SCHOEFF JR.
Howey Politics Indiana
WASHINGTON — Three days after the Kentucky Derby, it appeared that Rep. Baron Hill had backed the winner in the Democratic presidential horse race but put his political money on the loser of the vote in his southeast Indiana district. Standing out from most of his Democratic congressional colleagues, Hill decided to make an endorsement in his party’s nomination process before Tuesday’s Hoosier primary. He followed his mentor, former Rep. Lee Hamilton, and backed Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.
U.S. Rep. Baron Hill talks with supporters at the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner. His endorsement of Barack Obama didn't sway any of his 9th CD counties. (HPI Photo by A. Walker Shaw)
Hill may have been prescient when it came to the big picture. Obama won North Carolina solidly on Tuesday and battled to a narrow 51-49 loss in Indiana to his opponent, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
The outcome leaves Obama with a lead over Clinton in Democratic delegates, 1840.5 to 1688, according to the Associated Press. The eventual nominee needs to win 2025. Obama also has the support of more than 250 of 795 Democratic superdelegates, party leaders like members of Congress and statewide office holders.
But on the micro level, the story is different. Clinton trounced Obama in Hill’s district, winning the 9th CD 67 percent to 33 percent. In pivotal Clark and Floyd counties, Clinton prevailed 68-32 and 66-34, respectively. In the Democratic-leaning Scott County, she triumphed 78-22.
On Wednesday afternoon, Hill’s Republican opponent, former Rep. Mike Sodrel, was poring over the election results, pondering whether they bode ill for Hill in the fall. He noted that 19 of 20 counties in the district’s Democratic primary backed Clinton, as did 17 of the Democratic county chairs. Having Hill put himself on the other side of the district’s Democratic voters and leadership could be a boon for Sodrel in what could be Indiana’s only competitive congressional race. "It could be to my advantage to have Senator Obama at the top of the ticket," Sodrel said in an HPI interview. Sodrel was gauging the atmosphere in 10 precincts in five counties on election day. "I found a lot of disgruntled Democrats," he said. "The question is whether they will be disgruntled come November. I think some of them will be. Time will tell."
Hill was not available for an HPI interview on Wednesday. He enthusiastically endorsed Obama last week. He praised Obama for denouncing the controversial former pastor of his Chicago church and praised Osama’s “strength of character and commitment to our nation that transcends the personal."
He went on to say in a statement, "Senator Obama has the capability to change the tone and tenor of politics in Washington."
Hill’s bold, aggressive endorsement is in stark contrast to the continued caution of two other Hoosier Democratic congressional freshmen, Reps. Brad Ellsworth (8th CD) and Joe Donnelly (2nd CD). Neither Ellsworth nor Donnelly was available for comment on Wednesday.
In a statement issued by his press secretary, Elizabeth Farrar, Ellsworth seemed to indicate that he will back Clinton, who won every county in Ellsworth’s southwest Indiana district. Ellsworth said, "The American people, not superdelegates, should decide who the Democrat nominee will be. I will support the candidate 8th District voters choose unless there is a compelling reason to do otherwise."
Donnelly’s staff did not respond to an HPI interview request. Last week, Donnelly said in a statement, "Ultimately, I will support who I think would best serve our country as president." He said he would consider who leads in the delegate count and in the popular vote as well as who did best in the 2nd CD. On that latter count, Obama won St. Joseph and Elkhart counties, but Clinton won decisively in blue-collar Kokomo and Howard County, 55-44.
If Ellsworth and Donnelly decide to back Clinton, that will align them with Sen. Evan Bayh, who spent enormous amounts of political capital working for Clinton and helping deliver her narrow statewide win. Of course, the outcome also could be interpreted as Bayh essentially pulling only 51 percent of the vote, a surprisingly weak showing for someone who wins his own races without breaking a sweat. But that doesn’t mean that crossing Bayh and backing Obama is risk-free for Hoosier congressional superdelegates. The senator will still control the state party for the foreseeable future.
In the end, the machinations surrounding the Democratic presidential nomination may not affect individual House races. Ellsworth and Donnelly are facing opponents who have a long way to go to amass the financial and political support to mount a serious challenge.
In the 9th CD, Sodrel trails Hill in cash on hand by a wide margin, $308,000 to $990,000, according to the latest Federal Election Commission filing. But Sodrel says his fundraising is ahead of where it was in 2004, when he beat Hill to take over the seat, which he lost in 2006. For his fourth contest against Hill in the last four election cycles, Sodrel takes inspiration from Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard, who beat the heavily favored and much better financed Democratic incumbent, Bart Peterson.
“Greg Ballard recently proved that if you’re right on the issues, you can overcome the money difference,” Sodrel said.
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