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LATE HPI ANALYSIS: The polls are all over the map. Congressional districts that were once thought to be safe are now in play. Here’s Howey Politics Indiana’s late Monday afternoon analysis. Watch for updates on www.howeypolitics.com throughout today and tonight. .jpg)
HPI’s Brian Howey will appear on Andrea Mitchell’s MSNBC show at 1 p.m. today. Howey will also be reporting with a special edition of NPR’s All Things Considered from 8 to 10 p.m.
PRESIDENTIAL RACE: Howey Politics Indiana has the Clinton-Obama race a tossup. We think it could go either way. We just watched the crew on MSNBC work for five mintues to get Terry McAuliffe to predict a Clinton win in Indiana. That it took so long before he said, "We’ll win Indiana" (with a grin on his face) tells us this is no slam dunk. We don’t have any kind of history on how the 200,000 new voters will act. We believe this will be a turnout race.
WHAT’S GOING ON WITH THE POLLS? What we are seeing is a wide range of African-American sampling in polls. How the samples are set up are giving us a wider range. Another aspect is that people appear to be very softly leaning one way or another.
LATEST POLLS: SurveyUSA just released a poll (May 2-4) that shows Hillary Clinton with a 54-42 percent lead. The previous high was last week’s TeleResearch Poll that had Clinton up by 10. But Zogby’s two-day tracking (May 4-5) as Obama leading 45-43 percent. Zogby had a great track record in 2006, but then blew the California primary this year. Suffolk Polling has Clinton leading 49-43 percent. CNN’s polling composite has Clinton leading 48-44 percent with 8 percent undecided. Insider Advantage on May 4 had it 48-44 percent.The Real Clear Politics composite had Clinton leading 49-44 percent. In other states, such as Pennsylvania, the undecideds tended to break toward Clinton.
ABSENTEE VOTING: We’re hearing that the Obama camp is happy with the way its absentee campaign is going. There is significant absentee voting in Marion, St. Joseph, Lake, Allen, Vanderburgh and Tippecanoe counties.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS: The Clinton campaign noted that Obama had made a big TV buy in the Chicago media market. That gives credence to reports we’re hearing that Clinton had closed the gap in the 1st CD, which is in Obama’s backyard. It followed newspaper headlines in the Region last week asking where Obama was. He made a campaign stop in Munster last weekend. U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly told HPI he thinks the 2nd CD is a tossup. HPI lists the 3rd and 6th CDs as tossups. Clinton appeared to be in good shape in the 8th and 9th CDs. We believe that Obama wins the 7th. The heavy early voting may help Obama in the 4th CD college towns. John King of CNN was reporting today that Clinton was leading in the 1st CD. CNN also listed the 8th CD as in play, which had been considered Clinton country.
BELLWETHER KOKOMO: In the last several election cycles. Kokomo and Howard County have been bellwether territory. Gov. O’Bannon carried it in 2000; Gov. Daniels carried it in 2004. Howard County backed U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola in 2004, and U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly in 2006. There’s also been an Indiana House seat that has changed hands along with the Indiana House. So keep an eye on Howard County Tuesday night.
GOVERNOR’S RACE: According to SurveyUSA. Jim Schellinger has sudden late momentum and finishes in an effective tie with Jill Long Thompson, according to SurveyUSA’s 4th and final tracking poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville KY and WCPO-TV Cincinnati OH. Today, it’s Long Thompson 43%, Schellinger 41%, within the survey’s 3.8 percentage point margin of sampling error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released one week ago, on 04/24/08, Long Thompson, the former representative from the 4th Congressional District, is down 5 points. Schellinger, an Indianapolis architect, is up 5 points. In the final weekend, there is movement among women to the man. Long Thompson had led by 23 among female voters, now by 5. Among men, the two remain effectively tied. Among voters age 18 to 49, Long Thompson last week led by 10; today, Schellinger leads by 3, a 13-point swing. There is similar volatility in Southern Indiana and in Greater Indianapolis, where Schellinger finishes strong. Given that 16% of likely voters remain undecided on Primary Eve — unchanged over the past three weeks — any Primary outcome is possible. While the Howey-Gauge and other polls had Thompson with big leads, the caveat we offered was Schellinger’s ground game, which has been targeting its extensive calling toward women. The Thompson campaign says its tracking has her still leading 8 percent. HPI Status: Leans Thompson
OLDER VOTERS: So much attention has been afixed to new, younger voters. But it will be worth watching Tuesday whether the more reliable older voters turn out. If you see big increases there, that would be good news for Clinton.
21,000 TURNOUT FOR OBAMA: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton capped a frenetic day of campaigning as a final prelude to the cirtical Indiana primary (Brian A. Howey, Howey Politics Indiana). A Clinton win on Tuesday will mean the Democratic presidential campaign continues, possibly all the way to the Democratic National Convention in Denver in late August. An Obama win, along with a dual victory in North Carolina, could ice the nomination and force Clinton to choose between unity and personal ambition. Obama appeared before a gigantic rally at the American Legion Mall in downtown Indianapolis, and vowed to bring the troops home from Iraq and to create an energy policy that will wean the United States off of foreign oil. "There is no challenge we can’t solve; no destiny we can’t meet," Obama told the huge crowd that received national coverage. General J. Stewart Goodwin executive director of the Indiana War Memorial Commission, estimated the crowd to be 21,000. "Everywhere I go, people say, ‘Barack, we’re ready for change. That’s why you’re here tonight." Sen. Clinton was appearing with U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh in Evansville at midnight after campaigning in Merrillville. The CNN Poll of Polls had Clinton leading 48-44 percent. the Real Clear Politics composite also had Clinton leading 48-44 percent. But Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita released figures that there were 167,783 absentee ballots cast, including 143,165 for Democrats. Some observers believe such a huge turnout in absentee balloting favors Obama. The Obama campaign complained about National Right to Life robo calls made against Obama. “As a pro-life Catholic Democrat, one of the main reasons I endorsed Barack Obama is because he approaches issues from a non-ideological standpoint, and on issues like abortion, he deeply respects the views of folks on the other side of the argument," said former Indiana congressman Tim Roemer, who supports Obama. "He believes that if we focus on what unites us, we can accomplish more than we ever will by retreating into our corners and shouting each other. National Right to Life is running these calls because they know that Senator Clinton will be the easier Democrat to run against in the general election—and this is their way of giving her a helping hand in this tough primary battle." While the two candidates continued to spar on the Clinton proposal for a national gas tax holiday, the Clinton campaign sent out a mailer critical of Obama’s stance on gun control. That issue was expected to play well in places like the 8th and 9th Congressional Districts. Clinton deputy communications director Phil Singer blasted Obama for airing a fourth negative ad. "Considering that Senator Obama is now airing his fourth negative ad in six days, it’s clear that his closing message is focused on attacking Senator Clinton to cover up for the fact that he has no plan to reduce gas prices this summer," Singer said. Obama started election eve in Indiana at sunrise, greeting construction workers in Evansville before grabbing breakfast with laborers at the Evansville Labor Temple. From Evansville, Obama flew to North Carolina, which also votes tomorrow, where he has multiple events in Durham and Greensboro. Right after those events concluded, Obama returned to Indiana for a nighttime rally in Indianapolis. Obama left the American Legion Mall rally to head to a local manufacturing plant for a shift change where he’ll talk to workers. Obama was endorsed by singer Stevie Wonder on Monday night. "Barack Obama inspires me to write songs … and encourages me that we can come together and be a far greater country than ever before," Wonder said as a light rain fell on the mall. He sang "Signed, Sealed, Delivered I’m Yours," one of the Obama campaign theme songs.
FEW VOTING GLITCHES IN MARION COUNTY: A busy day of voting started with few reported issues and only two polling places that failed to open on time this morning in Indianapolis, Marion County Clerk Beth White said (Indianapolis Star). Two other precincts did not have Democratic Party ballots, but no voters were turned away, White said. Precinct 2-1 in Center Township located at IPS School 101 on East 10th Street, and Wayne 41 in south Wayne Township did not have inspectors on hand to open as scheduled. The Wayne inspector was running late, and the Election Board sent a backup inspector to the Center Township location. In addition, two precincts in Perry Township did not immediately have Democratic ballots on hand: Perry 64, Burkhart School; and Perry 28, Southport High School, but the ballots were quickly taken to those locations. Touch-screen voting machines were also available at those precincts, and no voters were turned away.
POLITICO’S 5 THINGS TO LOOK FOR: Before Barack Obama experienced a rough couple of weeks, his campaign was optimistic about his chances in this state. But with a black population of less than ten percent and swaths of blue collar towns and rural counties, Indiana is looking far more favorable to Hillary Clinton, who has blanketed the state with visits from her, former President Bill Clinton and their daughter Chelsea (Brown, The Politico). Can she achieve a replay of Ohio and Pennsylvania, when the rural counties turned in huge margins for her? Or will Obama, with significant endorsements in southern Indiana, be able to cut into her support? And will Obama succeed in driving up his totals in Indianapolis and the northwestern corner of the state? Here is what Indiana political strategists and experts will be looking for Tuesday: Check the polls. “The mantra is that 10-2-4 routine,” said Brian Howey, editor of Howey Politics Indiana, referring to 10 a.m., 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. checks to gauge turnout. Follow the turnout. Analysts are expecting far bigger turnout this year than in 2004, when about 22 percent of voters cast ballots in the presidential primary, said Russell Hanson, a political science professor at Indiana University-Bloomington. A much bigger turnout is good news for Obama because it means “those who haven’t been politically engaged in the past are coming out,” Hanson said. “If that is not happening, then that is working in Clinton’s favor because the traditional [party] machinery is working.” The new vote and the early vote. Analysts will be watching the preferences of the more than 200,000 new voters who were added to the registration rolls. “How many are Obamacans versus Rush Limbaugh mischief makers?” Howey asked. More than 160,000 voters cast their ballots early, with large numbers coming in from Obama strongholds in Lake (Gary), Marion (Indianapolis) and Monroe (Indiana University-Bloomington) counties. The Obama campaign tried taking full advantage of this option at Purdue and Indiana University, where classes concluded last week, by shuttling students to the county election site. “The traffic was so heavy that the county clerk agreed they would bring the polling place to the center of campus for two days,” Hanson said. Hoosier math. Obama needs to pile up large margins in Indianapolis in the middle of the state and in Gary’s Lake County in the northwest corner, which is part of the Chicago media market. Both areas boast significant African American populations. Gary, a city of 100,000 residents, is 84 percent black. Indianapolis, population 780,000, is 25 percent black. A good night for Obama would mean 10- to 20-point margins in both areas, analysts said. Obama will also need 20-point margins in college towns such as Bloomington and West Lafayette, analysts said. Clinton must rely on the Ohio River towns in southern Indiana along the Kentucky border. Obama drew 8,000 people to rally in Evansville, and picked up key endorsements in this area, such as Congressman Baron Hill and former Rep. Lee Hamilton, a revered figure. But Clinton is nevertheless favored to win the region by double digits. She spent the final hours of the campaign Monday in New Albany, a city of 37,000 with 7 percent black population, and Evansville, a city of 117,000 that is 11 percent black. Clinton also hopes to pad her lead in east central Indiana. Economically-distressed cities with union influence, such as Anderson, Muncie and Richmond, present favorable terrain for Clinton, but they also have African American populations of between eight and 15 percent, Howey said.
DRUDGE SAYS CLINTON EXPECTS 15% LOSS IN N.C.: Hillary Clinton’s inner circle now fears a stinging defeat is likely in North Carolina (Drudge Report). "Look, we worked hard and gave it our best shot, but the demographics, well, they are what they are," a top campaign source explained to the Drudge Report as voting began Tuesday morning. The campaign now believes a 15 point loss, or more, would not be surprising. Her team will work hard throughout the day to lower all expectations in North Carolina. The campaign hopes media attention will stay fixated on the competition in Indiana, where 72 delegates are on the line, and Clinton internals show a victory! North Carolina had been seen by Clinton insiders as the senator’s last shot to seriously jolt the system and overshadow the math. With 115 delegates at stake, North Carolina posed an uphill battle for Clinton.
10,000 EARLY VOTERS IN VANDERBURGH: County Clerk Susan Kirk noted that 5,094 people voted early at one of three libraries around the county — Oaklyn Branch, North Park Branch and Central libraries. Another 1,962 voted in person at the Civic Center, and approximately 2,200 more mailed their absentee ballots, she said (Evansville Courier & Press). "We’re going to come close to 10,000, which is an all-time record high for Vanderburgh County for early and absentee," Kirk said. As of noon Monday, 7.3 percent of Vanderburgh’s 131,000 registered voters had cast early or absentee ballots, a percentage almost double the statewide average of 3.8 percent. In Warrick County, officials received early and absentee ballots from 6.1 percent of the 45,400 registered voters. "That could very well be the reason why that number is higher," Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita said of early voting. "They went above and beyond what counties are required to do."
COLLEGE TOWNS VOTED HEAVY EARLY: Counties with the greatest numbers of new voter registrations are mainly those with large college campuses, Rokita said, such as Monroe (Indiana University-Bloomington), Tippecanoe (Purdue University) and Delaware (Ball State). Vanderburgh County, home to the University of Southern Indiana and the University of Evansville, ranks ninth among the 92 counties for new voter registrations, with 4,456 this spring, according to Rokita’s office. Marion County led the list with 27,478 new registrants (Evansville Courier & Press). Election officials said they are prepared for a record turnout today. The previous record turnout for an Indiana primary came in 1992 with slightly more than 1 million votes cast.
10,000 VOTE EARLY IN ALLEN COUNTY: In Allen County, nearly 10,000 people asked to vote early. Of the Allen County ballots requested, 7,718 were Democratic, and 2,133 were Republican, according to statewide voter information. In Northeastern Indiana, 17,934 early votes have been cast and 12,733 were Democratic (Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). Allen County’s numbers reflect a trend across northeast Indiana. In 11 area counties, 71 percent of people wanted Democratic ballots of the nearly 18,000 requested. In fact, only one area county had more Republican ballots requested than Democratic ones: Huntington. Huntington GOP Chairwoman Pam Updike said she wasn’t surprised by that fact because of the large number of local Republican primary races. The county has five Republicans seeking two county commissioner seats and 10 people seeking the county’s three at-large County Council positions. Also, Rep. Dan Leonard, R-Huntington, faces Terry Abbett, former mayor of Huntington, and Gary Snyder, an anti-money-laundering officer for a retirement planning firm in Bryan, Ohio.
OBAMA CANVASSING IN ANDERSON THIS MORNING: At 7 a.m. Tuesday, the Anderson headquarters of Barack Obama’s campaign were empty. Empty, except for a solitary supporter (Anderson Herald-Bulletin). She said she had been in the office since 9 p.m. Monday and that the plan for election day was to keep supporters on the street, not in the office. The Obama supporter said clusters of supporters could be found near the corner of Eighth Street and Madison Avenue and the corner of Nichol Avenue and Raible Avenue (Anderson Herald-Bulletin). It was at the corner of Eighth Street and Main Street that the two most visible supporters could be found. One on the southwest corner near the Madison County Government Center and one on the northeast corner in front of the Anderson City Building. Clutching a posterboard sign reading "Obama for Hope," Elizabeth Wepler of Anderson stood beneath a flapping American flag jutting from the brick exterior of the courthouse. A 2003 graduate of Highland High School and a 2007 graduate of Indiana University, Wepler had decided to put some effort into a political cause before heading off to graduate school. "I’ve been out here since about 6:30," Wepler said. "We’ve had some honks and some waves, so there have been some encouraging signs."
TIPPECANOE COUNTY BRACES FOR RECORD TURNOUT: Voter turnout for this year’s primary is expected to reach about 42,000 in Tippecanoe County — nearly triple the turnout seen in the last presidential primary election. More than 11,000 ballots have already been cast in Tippecanoe County (Lafayette Journal & Courier). "We’re staffed to accommodate 20,000 to 25,000 people with little wait time," County Clerk Linda Phillips said. "If we get closer to 35,000 or 40,000, I have people and (vote) machines in reserve." Voter turnout for this year’s primary is expected to reach about 42,000 in Tippecanoe County — nearly triple the turnout seen in the last presidential primary election. More than 11,000 ballots have already been cast in Tippecanoe County. "We’re staffed to accommodate 20,000 to 25,000 people with little wait time," County Clerk Linda Phillips said. "If we get closer to 35,000 or 40,000, I have people and (vote) machines in reserve."
HILLARY APPEALS TO VOTER FAITH IN MERRILLVILLE: In her last scheduled region visit before today’s hotly contested Indiana primary, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton appealed to voters’ faith in her ability to better their lives (Times of Northwest Indiana). "Think about who you believe, who you can trust," the New York senator told a crowd of supporters. "Please vote for yourselves, for your jobs, for your future." Hundreds of people filled the Merrillville Fire Station No. 2 on Monday afternoon to hear Clinton speak, as a kickoff for her volunteers to canvass across the state. People from as close as the next-door senior center and as far away as Pennsylvania came to Merrillville to show their support.
CLINTON REMINDS NEW ALBANY OF HISTORY: At a rally in New Albany last night, Sen. Hillary Clinton urged several hundred supporters to help get out the vote today (Louisville Courier-Journal). "It’s been 40 years since you helped elect a president," Clinton said to cheers. "Help us make the case: we need a president who is ready for the job on day one." Clinton, accompanied by Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, told the crowd that if elected, she would order an investigation into why gasoline prices are so high. "I am sure market manipulation is going on," she said, adding that she believes oil traders are artificially inflating prices. She summarized her goals for education — such as making college affordable for everyone who wants to go — and said she would work on a plan to start bringing U.S. troops back from Iraq within 60 days. "Our soldiers have done everything we asked them to do. It is time for them to come home," she said. She also pledged to roll back Bush administration tax breaks for the wealthy.
BAYH REMINDS VOTERS OF SHOT; BARTENDER TO BACK HILLARY; Sen. Evan Bayh reminded the crowd about the shot and a beer Clinton drank at Crown Point watering hole Bronko’s, an event credited with helping revive her campaign. "We learned in Crown Point she can take a shot not only figuratively, but literally," Bayh said as Clinton laughed (Post-Tribune). In the crowd at the packed fire house, Bronko’s bartender Russ Panning said he has decided to support Clinton since he offered her a shot of Crown Royal April 12. But Panning said he likes Clinton because of her plans for the economy, not because they drank together. "We have to get something going economically," Panning said. Others in the crowded truck barn said Clinton’s economic message resonates.
CHELSEA IN BRAZIL: In one of the last big-name campaign stops in the Wabash Valley before today’s primary, Chelsea Clinton visited the city of Brazil on Monday (Terre Haute Tribune-Star). Hillary Clinton supporters filled Washington Street in front of City Hall, squinting in the bright sun and waiting to catch a glimpse of the former first daughter. The atmosphere was that of a town festival, as some sat on the grassy knoll near the steps leading into City Hall, some sat in lawn chairs. Others stood along the sidewalks and across the street on the steps of the Clay County Historical Society building. Brazil was just one stop for Clinton on Monday; she also visited Indianapolis, Goshen and Notre Dame. Miss Indiana USA, Brittany Mason, joined Clinton on several of the stops, including Brazil.
KENNEDYS COME BACK TO INDIANA: Forty years later, Bobby Kennedy’s son, Maxwell Taylor Kennedy, was back in Kokomo, stumping for the man he considers the successor of his father’s political legacy, Sen. Barack Obama (Kokomo Tribune). Only 3 years old when he accompanied his father and mother Ethel on a 1968 swing through the Hoosier state, Max Kennedy nonetheless knows now what an effect the Hoosier victory had on that campaign. Late coming into the presidential campaign, Bobby Kennedy immediately took frontrunner status. “I think the trip out here had a profound effect on him; obviously because of Dr. King’s death, but beyond that, the reception he received here I think gave him a great deal of confidence in the changes he wanted to make in this country,” Max Kennedy said at Obama’s local headquarters. His father, he added, resisted the urgings of what Max Kennedy called “the beginning of political consultants.” Honesty, Max Kennedy said, is what will win Obama the presidency, in spite of conventional political wisdom. “I think he’s willing to lose the presidency for his principles,” Kennedy said. “I think it’s really important for someone to be able to give up his ambitions for what’s right.” In addition to Kokomo, Max Kennedy and his wife, Vicky, both Los Angeles residents, visited Anderson, Muncie, Fort Wayne and Lafayette Monday. They aren’t the only Kennedys stumping in Indiana, however. Both Bobby Kennedy Jr. and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, Max Kennedy’s siblings [Bobby and Ethel had 11 children], have stumped here for Sen. Hillary Clinton. Sen. Edward M. Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy have also come out in support of Obama in the race. Bobby Kennedy Jr., Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and Kerry Kennedy explained their support for Clinton in a nationally published op-ed piece in January. “Her transformational leadership was on display when she ran for the Senate seat in New York that had been held by our father, Sen. Robert F. Kennedy,” they wrote.
DNC RULES COMMITTEE TO MEET MAY 31: The Democratic National Committee Rules Committee will meet on May 31 to hear the Clinton campaign’s proposal to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations. NBC’s Chuck Todd said that Obama might allow the Florida delegation to be seated and the campaign would net about 40 delegates. In that scenario, Obama would still have about a 100 delegate lead. NBC also reported that a number of super delegates are poised to move in the Obama column should he sweep or split today’s primaries in Indiana and North Carolina.
7TH CD
CARSON ADDRESSES 21,000 PEOPLE: U.S. Rep. Andre Carson got an opportunity few congressional candidates get. On Monday night, he addressed the 21,000 people at the Obama rally on the American Legion Mall (Howey Politics Indiana). "Are you ready to make history?" Carson said. "We have had too many years of tyranny. Too many years of authoritarian leadership. Too many years where we’ve spent $1 trillion in Iraq." Later, Carson said, "The Carson campaign and the Obama campaign are one." When he took the stage, Obama thanked Carson.
Indiana Governor
THOMPSON CELEBRATION IN FORT WAYNE: Jill Long Thompson’s election night celebration is in Fort Wayne and not with the establishment in Indianapolis (Blue Indiana).
JLT, SCHELLINGER STUMP IN CLARK COUNTY: Indiana’s two Democratic gubernatorial contenders stopped in Clark County yesterday in final swings around the state to pitch their plans for the economy and education (Louisville Courier-Journal). Jim Schellinger, an Indianapolis architect who flew to Clark Regional Airport, said Republican Gov. Mitch Daniel’s tenure since he took office in 2005 has divided Hoosiers, a situation that demands a leader who will bring people together. "Indiana has never been more polarized than we are now," Schellinger told 10 supporters gathered at the airport parking lot. Jill Long Thompson, a former educator, congresswoman and undersecretary of agriculture from the Fort Wayne area, met voters and local officials at Perkfection, a Jeffersonville coffee shop. Thompson said she intends to work to increase the high school graduation rate and to reinvest in vocational education. She also said that contrary to figures released by Daniels, the state had a surge of 16,200 new jobless claims in March — and also cut unemployment benefits. Working families have been especially hard hit, she said, adding that voters have told her that jobs and the economy "are the number-one concern" for them now.
THOMPSON ENCOURAGED: Three-and-a-half hours of sleep. Twenty-six miles from Argos to South Bend. Sixty-nine miles from South Bend to Fort Wayne. One hundred five miles from Fort Wayne to Indianapolis. One hundred twelve miles from Indianapolis to Jeffersonville. One hundred twenty-two miles from Jeffersonville to Evansville (Ronco, South Bend Tribune). That was how Monday went for Jill Long Thompson, Democratic candidate for Indiana governor in today’s primary election. James Schellinger, 48, the other Democratic candidate for governor, spent Monday doing much of the same, making stops by airplane in Terre Haute, Bloomington, Jeffersonville, Columbus, Connersville and Muncie. Along for the ride was state Rep. Terry Goodin, D-Austin, who helped promote Schellinger’s education platform. In his day job, Goodin is superintendent of the Crothersville Community Schools. The last few hours of his campaign won’t be much different than the first 15 months, he said, with stops across the state both Monday and today. "I’ve had a game plan that I’ve followed to the T," Schellinger told The Tribune Sunday night. "We’ll head back into Indy when the polls close, and I’ll get together with my family, and we’ll see how everything turns out." Long Thompson said she planned to visit Lake County this morning before returning to Argos, where she plans to vote about 1:30 p.m. at the First Baptist Church on Indiana 10. Long Thompson, a 55-year-old former congresswoman, seemed encouraged Monday while having breakfast at Tom’s Restaurant in downtown South Bend. But the wild card, she said, will be first-time voters in today’s primary. A college professor by trade, she is appealing to them through MySpace and Facebook, she said.
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