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HPI MONITORS CLINTON-OBAMA TELL TALES: Here are some telltales HPI is looking for in the final 24 hours:
GAS TAX DEBATE: Will Hoosiers understand the nuanced argument that Obama is making against the gas tax suspension? It worked for Gov. Frank O’Bannon during his 2000 re-election bid. Will Hoosiers see history repeating itself eight years later and make the connection that the status quo is responsible for the soaring gas prices and into Obama’s wheelhouse of change? Or will Clinton win on what could be perceived as a populist message? A New York Times/CBS Poll revealed that 49 percent thought the gas tax suspension was a bad idea while 44 percent supported the suspension. The Clinton proposal was widely panned by many economists.
ORGANIZATIONAL TURNOUT: Obama began the Indiana primary sequence with an organizational advantage, one he still may possess. Democratic observers tell HPI that his campaign has been far more active on the Voter Access Network - the statewide voter list - than Clinton. .jpg)
Of the 127,000 people who have already voted, 20 percent of those came from Obama strongholds of Lake, Marion and Monroe counties, an indicator that the Obama campaign is pinpoint targeting its GOTV. The Obama campaign has long promoted early voting. In addition, the Obama campaign signed up 90,000 of the 200,000 newly registered voters. A key question is, how many of those people showed up in polling of "likely registered voters"? A number of observers we talked to said the wildcard is how the 200,000 new voters will behave. The Indianapolis Star reported that there are 400,000 new voters since the last presidential election. The Lafayette Journal & Courier reported 11,000 early voters in Tippecanoe County. Another example of Obama’s outreach are the ads appearing on dozens of Indiana newspaper and TV websites. A reader can click on the ad to find their polling place.
AFRICAN-AMERICAN SUPPORT: HPI has heard anectdotally that some African-American precincts could vote in the 80th or 90th percentile, when typically they vote their primary participation would be in the 20th percentile, depending on local races. The Indianapolis Star reported a large number of blacks who voted early over the weekend.
RACE: Are the polls accurately reflecting any racial bias? This element would favor Clinton, who is expected to do well with white blue collar voters. Mike Jones, 9th CD chairman, and Dean Borste in the 8th CD told HPI Sunday night that they expected Clinton to win those Southern Indiana districts. Borste said Obama would pull only 30 percent in his county.
FEMALES: HPI has heard estimates that between 58 and 60 percent turnout could be female. If that holds, Clinton would benefit.
HPI ANALYSIS: U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly stood by the Indiana Convention Center window and watched Obama supporters rally on the sidewalk below while Clinton supporters stood on the opposite corner. "This is what this is all about," said Donnelly, who is undecided. "These people want to change things." Donnelly said he believes his 2nd CD is a tossup. Mike Jones, 9th CD chairman, and Dean Borste in the 8th CD told HPI Sunday night that they expected Clinton to win those Southern Indiana districts. State Sen. Frank Mrvan said that the race had tightened in the 1st CD, once thought to be an Obama stronghold. Kip Tew, working with the Obama campaign, said that Clinton appeared to have about a 6 percent lead last week. The Real Clear Politics composite stands at 4.6 percent in favor of Clinton, down from 5.8 percent over trhe weekend. A Suffolk Poll had Clinton leading 49-43 percent. Zogby two-day tracking had Obama leading 44-42. We saw the momentum swing to Clinton after the Pennsylvania primary through mid-week. Zogby International said that Obama retains a lead in North Carolina - 48 percent to 39 percent, with 13 percent either unsure or favoring someone else. Gallup has Obama leading Clinton nationally 49-45 percent. We believe that hits its apex and may be shifting into the weekend. With the polling all over the map, and the impact of 200,000 new voters unknown, we believe this race is too close to call.
NYT/CBS SHOWS OBAMA REBOUND: Democrat Barack Obama appears to have rebounded from some of the damage caused by the controversy surrounding his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright, according to the latest CBS News/New York Times poll. On one key measure, Obama has seen a big reversal since his denunciation of Wright’s remarks on Tuesday. He now leads presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in the hypothetical fall contest by eleven points, 51 percent to 40 percent. That compares to a tied match-up in a CBS News/New York Times poll that was released last Wednesday. Positive assessments of how Obama has handled the situation with Wright are also reflected by a continued lead over fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton in his battle for their party’s nomination. Among Democratic primary voters (those who have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama’s lead over Clinton has increased — he now leads Clinton by twelve points, 50 percent to 38 percent. That’s up from his eight point lead in the poll released just a few days ago. However, among all registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats (regardless of whether they have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama and Clinton are virtually tied — 45 percent for Clinton and 44 percent for Obama. This is similar to the numbers earlier in the week. Forty-nine percent think lifting the tax is a bad idea, while 45 percent approve of the plan. Most Republicans approve of the idea and most independents disapprove, while Democrats are divided. Americans are also divided on this issue by income: Americans making under $30,000 a year approve of a gas tax “holiday” for the summer, but most Americans making more do not. In this poll, Clinton is the candidate most viewed as pandering: Just 34 percent think she says what she believes, while nearly two in three believe she says what people want to hear.
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