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By BRIAN A. HOWEY
INDIANAPOLIS - The historic Indiana Democratic presidential primary race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama could well be decided by … Republicans. According to the Howey-Gauge Poll conducted April 23-24, entirely after the Clinton Pennsylvania primary victory, Hoosier Democrats are evenly split at 46-46 percent. The fascinating wrinkle comes when the poll reveals that the race could be determined by the 9 percent of independent voters expected to participate, and 10 percent Republican crossover.
U.S. Sen. Barack Obama is in a fierce battle in Indiana with U.S. Hillary Clinton, leading in the Howey-Gauge Poll 47-45. The two have been battling for the blue collar vote. (HPI Photo by Brian A. Howey)
In the head-to-head matchup, Obama has a 47-45 lead, well within the 4.1 percent margin of error. The poll was the result of two scientific surveys: the first that included 600 likely registered voters and the second that consisted of 600 likely Democratic primary election voters. The total statewide survey included 40 percent Democrats and 50 percent Republicans along with 10 percent independent voters.
There appears to be two kinds of Republicans: the "Obamacans" as the Illinois senator likes to call them - earnest Republicans deeply disappointed in their own party’s performance on the budget, economy, social issues and the Iraq War - and the Rush Limbaugh Republicans who are planning to crossover to vote for Sen. Clinton because they perceive her to be the weakest rival to U.S. Sen. John McCain in the November election.
Howey-Gauge shows that self-identified Republicans favor Clinton 50-44 percent, while independents favor Obama 54-38 percent. "The Democratic primary is going to be decided by non-Democrats," said Gauge Market Research pollster Holly Davis. "To be determined is which group - Republicans or independents - are going to decide this race." An indicator as to the kind of havoc Republican voters could create comes on the Iraq War issue. Those favoring immediate withdrawal favor Obama 49-46 percent. Those favoring the current troop levels favor Clinton 58-39 percent, but, Davis notes, "That number is strongly influenced by Republican crossovers."
At 99 percent, both Clinton and Obama have universal name identification. Clinton’s favorable/unfavorable ratings stand at 37/42 percent among total potential primary voters, compared to 61/21 from Democrats. Obama has similar numbers from Democrats - 60/20, but fares better with all potential primary voters, including Republicans and independents, at 41/34 percent.
Sen. Clinton leads 48-43 percent on the top issue - jobs and wages. Gasoline prices rocketed from just 1 percent in the Feb. 17-18 Howey-Gauge survey to 12 percent on April 23-24, a huge statistical leap. Sen. Clinton holds a 46-45 percent lead with voters on that issue. That’s why we saw Sen. Obama hold the press conference last Friday at Joe’s Junction, a Phillips 66 station in Indianapolis. Both Clinton and Obama are running TV ads on the gas price issue. "That’s a measurable voting block," Davis said of the those who see gas prices as the leading issue. "They are not just concerned, people are scared. They are upset. You have a sizable voting block that has their backs up against the wall, with no escape hatch; nowhere to go. They look at gas prices and see their grocery bills rising as a result. That’s creating anxiety."
Some of the demographic data are similar to what we’ve seen in other states. Obama leads among 18-29-year-olds (57-43 percent) and 30-44-year-olds (61-37 percent). Clinton leads among 60 year old and up (53-38 percent). The most important age group will be the 45-59-year-old voter, where Clinton has a narrow 44-42 percent lead. With up to 200,000 new voters, according to Secretary of State Todd Rokita, the crucial question is whether younger voters can reverse a historical trend and out-poll older voters. Clinton leads among white females (58-33 percent) and white males (49-44 percent). Obama leads among black females (79-11 percent) and black males (78-15 percent)..jpg)
Hillary Clinton signs autographs at Allison Transmission Plant 12. She leads with Hoosier female voters, but Republicans might put her over the top. (HPI Photo by Brian A. Howey)
As far as the "race" question goes, it’s hard to tell how that will play out. Poll participants have often not been candid about race questions, answering one way and voting another. Will people who don’t want to vote for an African-American man be inclined to vote for a female for president? The 1999 Indianapolis mayoral race where Sue Anne Gilroy lost is a historic point to consider. Gilroy lost support of many Republican women.
"Both campaigns can point to specific demographic groups, but neither is strong enough with enough key demographic groups to give one candidate a clear advantage," Davis said. Key demographics to watch in the final week include white females, the 18-44 age group; African-Americans; and the Evansville media market (Clinton leads there 57-37 percent). Each will be critical to the winner. Obama has the lead with people who said their interest level in this election was the top "10" issues of importance, 48-45 percent.
One in five likely voters in the Democratic primary are not Democrats. Obama appears to have geography (coming from neighboring Illinois), a better organization, more money and those 200,000 new voters - many his campaign signed up - as advantages. Clinton will have the advantage of the support of more reliable older voters, the political organization of Sen. Evan Bayh and the Indiana Democratic Party.
Whatever you want to call it - within the margin of error, too-close-to-call, or a good ol’ fashioned Hoosier barn burner - the fact is that we may be up pretty late next Tuesday night to see who wins this fascinating primary.
Indiana Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
Democrat Jill Long Thompson has an outside the margin of error 45-27 percent lead over Jim Schellinger in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Among self-identified Democrats, Thompson leads 48-24 percent. "She plays right to the core of the party," said Davis.
Schellinger’s problems stem from his lack of fame. Schellinger has only 50 percent total name identification among Democrats. His favorable/unfavorables stand at a paltry 15/8 percent. In the 15 years that Howey Politics Indiana has been publishing, we’ve never seen such low name ID and favorables for a gubernatorial candidate. Looking at the Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, South Bend and Chicago media markets, Thompson has much greater name ID. About the only group that Schellinger has an advantage with is Republicans, where he leads 45-33 percent. "He appeals to Evan Bayh Republicans," Davis said. "That’s about the only group that supports Schellinger over Jill Long Thompson." An example of this comes in the Indianapolis media market, which represents 39 percent of the state. Schellinger achieved his highest name ID there, but he has his worst fav/unfavs at 17/14 percent there, even though they are miniscule numbers. About 36 percent don’t have an informed opinion of him. "Schellinger has not penetrated statewide," Davis said. "He has not been able - through earned or unearned media - to build his campaign to be fully viable.".jpg)
Jim Schellinger (left) has never built up enough name ID and now trails Jill Long Thompson by 18 percent in the latest Howey-Gauge Poll. (HPI Photo)
Thompson’s numbers are somewhat better. She has a 59 percent statewide or 58 just in the Democratic primary total name ID and her favorable/unfavorables stand at 27/7 percent. Neither candidate is particularly well known in Southern Indiana, where Schellinger campaigned on Monday with former House Speaker John Gregg. Thompson polls better with independents (33-30 percent). Thompson leads among black females (48-15 percent), black males (57-37 percent), white femals (45-31 percent), and white males (43-21). The fact that Hillary Clinton will be driving up the female vote and Barack Obama will seek to turn out African-Americans bodes well for Thompson to make residual gains.
As for matchups with Gov. Mitch Daniels, Thompson trailed 56-33 percent in February and 55-36 percent in April. "She has shaved some points off the lead while gaining 17 percent on name ID. Schellinger trails Daniels 56-33 percent, similar to his 54-31 percent gap in February.
On the issue of taxes, 23 percent said that was the top issue, down from 38 percent in February. "The storm on taxes has subsided," Davis said. "But it’s still the top issue." The Indiana right track/wrong track issue stands at 39/41 percent. But the governor’s re-elect number has improved 6 percent since February, to 47 percent. "That’s improved due to property taxes," Davis said. "But many people haven’t gotten their new statements. They’ve just heard it’s been fixed." The pollsters also note that it’s not surprising that Daniels would have bigger leads, simply because the two Democrats don’t have nearly the name ID as the incumbent.
Is Thompson’s nomination a slam dunk? In our opinion, it would take a misstatement or some late issue development to significantly alter the dynamic in this gubernatorial primary.
5TH CD PRIMARY
You could almost envision Dr. John McGoff singing like Tevya from "Fiddler on the Roof." "If I were a rich man ….."
The Howey-Gauge 5th CD survey shows U.S. Rep. Dan Burton with a big 57-22 percent lead. But embedded in the cross tabulations are nuggets that if McGoff had enough money to exploit, could allow him to upset Burton. For instance, Burton’s negatives in Marion County - which makes up about 20 percent of the district, are 35 percent. His district re-elect stands at 49 percent.
Burton has 98 percent name ID and his total favorable/unfavorable ratings stand at 58/19 percent. In contrast, just 48 percent know who McGoff is. His fav/unfavs stand at 18/2 percent and in Marion County they stand at 35/3 percent. "If people know him, they like him," said pollster Davis. But it looks as if McGoff would need about 2,000 gross rating points (and several more Matt Tully columns in the Indianapolis Star) to drive up the 20-25 percent name ID that might get him in the game with Burton. Another problem facing McGoff is that many of his supporters are independent and moderate Republicans, the very voter who might be enticed to cross over and vote in the Democratic presidential primary.
As for issues, 32 percent said taxes were the top issue, though 41 percent in Marion County called taxes the top issue. Gas prices came in second with 11 percent.
7TH CD PRIMARY
For U.S. Rep. Andre Carson to lose, someone is going to have to rough him up (politically). In what is essentially a two-man race, Carson leads Dr. Woody Myers 45-28 percent. State Rep. David Orentlicher is third with 8 percent and State Rep. Carolene Mays is at 4 percent, with 16 percent undecided.
Carson’s name ID stands at 95 percent in the Democratic primary and his favorable/unfavorable ratings stand at 66/8 percent. Myers began his TV advertising campaign on March 12, the day after Carson was elected to fill the term of his late grandmother, U.S. Rep. Julia Carson. Afters six weeks of TV, Myers’ name ID has spiked to 82 percent of people choosing to vote in the 7th CD primary. His fav/unfavs stood at 51/7 percent. "People who said they will vote for Woody also like Andre Carson," said Davis.
While Carson has a 17-point lead over Myers, on the top issue - jobs/wages - Myers leads 35-33 percent. Davis notes, "As voters get older, the less likely they are to support Carson. Carson will feed off the younger, black voters that will be turning out to support Obama." Thus, it is no surprise that Carson will do whatever he can to link himself to Obama, as he did during Sunday evening’s debate when he urged people to "vote for Carson and Obama."
White voters favored Myers over Carson 40-22 percent while African-American voters favored Carson over Myers 59-21 percent. "Clearly this is a two-person race," Davis said. "Myers has a chance to win; he’s definitely making inroads. He’s well-liked. But Myers needs something to distinguish himself from Carson to have a chance."
Myers needs something - perhaps Reps. Orentlicher or Mays to go on the attack - in order to shake up the dynamic.
Tags: Andre Carson, Barack Obama, Dan Burton, Hillary Clinton, Jill Long Thompson, JIm Schellinger, John McGoff, Woody Myers
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This entry was written by and posted on April 29, 2008 at 3:41 pm and filed under HPI Weekly. Bookmark the permalink. Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post.
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