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By BRIAN A. HOWEY
INDIANAPOLIS - To Barack and Hillary, welcome to Indiana, home of the vice presidents! Dan Quayle, Charles Fairbanks, Thomas R. Marshall, Schuyler Colfax, and Thomas Hendricks are the alums. But as the riveting 2008 election unfolds and John McCain compiles his list of 20 possibilities, we count four Hoosiers who are making some of the various short lists: Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Pence and Democrats Sen. Evan Bayh, Lee Hamilton and Tim Roemer.
This was supposed to be Evan Bayh’s year. When he dropped out of the presidential race in December 2006, the whispers had Bayh possessing a "soft commitment" from Hillary Clinton as her vice presidential nominee. In September 2007, Bayh’s endorsement of the "inevitable" Clinton nomination appeared to be evidence of this arrangement. 
Here, Bayh was a momentum builder for the former First Lady. But this is a year when conventional wisdom has been turned on its ear … repeatedly and consistently.
And there’s one thing that Hoosiers know by now: that obvious vice presidential timber doesn’t always build a ticket. Since 1972, President Nixon’s "favorite mayor," Richard G. Lugar, was supposed to be poised for a national ticket. Keith Bulen attempted a coup, rightly believing Vice President Agnew was deeply flawed. But the nattering nabobs could produce no miracle at Miami Beach that year. In 1980, Lugar again was poised to join Ronald Reagan’s ticket. Rex Early writes in his book, "It’s a Mighty Thin Pancake," that the Indiana delegation was gathered around the "red phone" linked to the Reagan braintrust (while George H.W. Bush sulked in a bar) which was supposed to ring with the news of the Reagan-Lugar ticket, When the phone rang, it was Indianapolis Star columnist Tom Keating ordering two pizzas (no achovies, please). Hours after that gag, American politics changed in a dramatic way with news of the Reagan-Bush ticket. Eight years later, it was Bush-Quayle, a choice so completely out of left field that even Dan Quayle was caught off guard. The sentiment heard across the Hoosier prairies was vivid: George H.W. Bush picked the wrong Indiana senator! And to think how American history would have changed if the choice had been Lugar.
On Monday, Washington Post blogger Chris Cillizza elevated Tim Roemer to his Obama veep list, also including Tim Kaine, Bill Richardson and Nancy Sebelius. Cillizza wrote, "A former congressman from the South Bend-based district in Indiana, Roemer could up his chances if he can help deliver the Hoosier State to Obama on May 6. As importantly, Roemer was a member of the high-profile 9/11 Commission and is currently the president of the Center for National Policy, a think tank that looks closely at national security issues." He had Bayh on his Clinton short list: The protracted primary fight is good news for Bayh’s vice presidential chances as he gets an (unexpected) opportunity to show his mettle on behalf of Clinton in Indiana’s May 6 primary. Bayh has a terrific case on paper: two terms as governor and two terms in the Senate from a red state in the Midwest. He’s also been one of the most effective and active advocates for Clinton throughout the campaign. Bayh’s biggest problem is that vice presidential picks are not always made on paper. His detractors see him as stiff and shallow, a choice that wouldn’t create much excitement.
Lou Jacobson of Stateline.org wrote a column for HPI last winter in which he touted former Congressman Hamiton, who at age 76 would be a real stretch. But Jacobson writes that Hamilton is a moderate, has decades of Washington experience, would beef up Obama’s "thin resume," is battle-tested by holding the red-tinged 9th CD for 34 years, and that his 9-11 Commission would end GOP "ownership" of that calamity.
Hamiton was asked on Wednesday about joining an Obama cabinet after he endorsed the Illinois senator. "My name has come up in the last five or six Democratic nominees for president," Hamilton said. "It’s pretty obvious I haven’t any job."
When presumptive GOP nominee John McCain campaigned in Indianapolis last winter, he was asked about Pence being on the ticket. He responded by saying it was too early to focus on the veepstakes. The two of them made international news a year ago at Baghdad’s Shorja market. Current speculation centers of Republican governors. But Pence earned some attention when shortly after McCain had the nomination sewed up he urged conservatives to give him a chance and outlined a wish list. If McCain feels he will lose the conservative wing of the party, which seems less likely today than it did a month ago, Pence’s name could pop up on short lists.
Both Roemer and Pence appeared at the HPI Forum in October 2006. HPI observed at the time, "When Tim Roemer spoke about 9/11 and Pence on immigration, they offered two of the most eloquent moments. They differ vastly on many issues (though both are pro-life) and perceptions. But both are fascinating communicators. Do not be surprised if either of these Hoosiers begin making national party ticket short lists in the summer of 2008."
And our take? At this point, with Obama a more likely Democratic nominee than Clinton, we see Roemer as perhaps having the best shot in the always fickle veepstakes. If the momentum swings back to Clinton, then Bayh resurfaces. But this is no redoubt to cheer on the hometown boys. If we had to place a bet on the veep today, our best guess would be an Obama-Webb ticket (that’s Sen. James Webb) and McCain-Romney (there are no obvious GOP female, African-Americans or Hispanics, though 65-year-old, Sen. Kay Baily Hutchison comes closest).
Tags: Dick Lugar, Evan Bayh, Lee Hamilton, Mike Pence, Richard Nixon, Tim Roemer
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This entry was written by and posted on April 3, 2008 at 12:06 pm and filed under HPI Weekly. Bookmark the permalink. Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post.
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