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INDIANAPOLIS - U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, Indianapolis Councilman Andre Carson and Gov. Mitch Daniels staked big leads in the first Howey-Gauge Poll conducted Feb. 17-18. Obama had a 40-25 percent lead over U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton in the statewide Democratic May 6 primary. 
Carson held a 54-36 percent lead over State Rep. John Elrod heading into the March 11 special election. In the Indiana governor’s race, while Gov. Daniels’ re-elect number was a relatively low 41 percent, he had twin 23-percent leads over Democrats Jim Schellinger (54-31 percent) and JIll Long Thompson (56-33 percent). The governor’s head-to-head numbers were largely driven by 38 percent of Hoosiers saying taxes were the top issues. Any single issue over 30 percent is considered "a hot issue," said Howey-Gauge Pollster Michael Davis, president of Gauge Market Research. "Gov. Daniels is finding traction on the top three issues: taxes, jobs and education."
The poll included 500 likely registered voters based on voter files and up-to-date U.S. Census data. The statewide poll had a 4.5 percent margin of error, while the 7th CD breakout of 300 likely registered voters had a 5.7 percent error margin. In the 7th CD, there was a ratio of 41/24 Democrat to Republican in party affiliation and 28 percent were African-American.
The Obama-Clinton poll segment of the poll was the first one conducted on the bitterly contested presidential race that could find Indiana front stage center leading into the May 6 primary. Obama had huge leads among younger voters (42-16 percent), males (40-26 percent), females (39-23 percent), African-Americans (68-3 percent) and white voters (34-30 percent). "White females are the only demographic breakdown in which Hillary Clinton leads," said Davis, "and that is a narrow 31-29 percent." The 36 percent undecideds are high, but HPI Publisher Brian A. Howey reminded the briefing at the Barnes & Thornburg Auditorium this morning that U.S. Evan Bayh has endorsed Clinton and many Democrats hope he is on the national ticket. "The primary is still 11 weeks away and that size of undecideds is typical," said Davis. In the GOP race, U.S. Sen. John McCain has a 52-23 percent lead over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and leads in virtually all categories.
Howey noted that while Bayh, House Speaker B. Patrick Bauer, Marion County Sheriff Frank Anderson and a number of congressional district party chairs and former officeholders are backing Clinton, a number of state legislators from Northwest Indiana, Indianapolis, South Bend and Evansville are backing Obama. "These legislators have their ears close to the ground with all the Third House meetings they attend. They are sensing Obama’s momentum."
In the 7th CD, Carson has 93 percent name recognition and his favorable/unfavorable rating stands at 60/3 percent among Democrats. "That ratio is very strong," Davis said. Elrod has 72 percent name ID and his favorable/unfavorables stand at 27-11 percent. "Jon Elrod needs to get up on TV fast to have any shot at the special election," said Howey. Carson has been running TV ads for the past three weeks.
In the gubernatorial race, the two Democrats are suffering from low name ID and relative silence on the issues of taxes and jobs.
The Indiana right track/wrong track question stood at 37/40 percent, normally a bad omen for incumbents. But Schellinger’s total awareness was a mere 21 percent and only 8 percent had a hard opinion of him. Said Davis, "77 percent of self-identified Democratic voters do not yet recognize the name of Jim Schellinger. It is not possible to draw a statistically valid conclusion from most demographic cross tabulations of voters opinion of Schellinger due to the low percentage of name recognition." The Indianapolis market is the only one where Schellinger had a name recognition higher than 10 percent. Thompson’s total awareness was 42 percent, but hard opinion recognition stood at a low 22 percent. "She has the highest favorable to unfavorable ratio of the three gubernatorial candidates," Davis explained. "But 60 percent of self-identified Democratic voters do not yet recognize the name of Jill Long Thompson."
Daniels’ fav/unfavs stood at 52/23 percent, compared to 17/5 percent for Jill Long Thompson and 6/2 percent for Schellinger. While Gov. Daniels re-elect was only 41 percent statewide, it was 48 percent in the 7th CD, possibly boosted by his property tax reform plan and the help he extended to the family after U.S. Rep. Julia Carson died. A number of family members thanked the governor during her televised funeral on Dec. 22.
Howey explained, "Since Oct. 23 when he announced his cap & cut tax reform plan, Daniels has announced that package, received the Kernan-Shepard Commission report, given his State of the State address and has participated in more than 15 town hall meetings. His press coverage has been generally favorable and the tax reforms are advancing in the House and Senate with huge bipartisan margins. That explains why his re-elect is low in this era of anti-incumbency and yet he does well head-to-head with the two Democratic candidates who have been mostly absent from the property tax debate and aren’t very famous."
Another element to that is the "agent of change" notion that Obama has been advancing while winning 10 primaries and caucuses in a row. Howey notes that in the presidential cross tabulations, 38 percent of those favoring Gov. Daniels re-election are supporting Obama. "Even though the governor is an incumbent, he has certainly been an agent of change whether you like it or not," Howey explained.
On the issue of property tax relief, 61 percent favor the governor’s reform package and 25 percent oppose. Davis explains, "65 percent of the voters in the Evansville media market, 64 percent in the Indianapolis media market, 64 percent in the Fort Wayne media market, and 59 percent in the Chicago media market either strongly favor or support the Daniels Property Tax Relief Plan." It didn’t fare so well in the South Bend/Elkhart market where only 41 percent favor passage. Among parties, 72 percent of Republicans and 53 percent of Democrats backed the plan. But on the question of local government consolidation, 40 percent favored keeping township government but running it more efficiently and another 21 percent said leave township government alone. Only 18 percent favored elimination of township government.
Howey explained, "While the governor talks about government reform as the key to his tax reforms working, he obviously hasn’t made that connection stick with many Hoosier voters."
Future Howey-Gauge Polls will be conducted in late April, late August and late October. The August poll will be presented at the Greater Indianapolis Chamber of Commerce’s Hob Nob at the Indiana State Museum at White River State Park. Check out the HPI Indiana Polling Center for all polling media polling results from around the state.
Tags: Andre Carson, Brian A. Howey, Daniels, Gauge Market Research, Hillary Clinton, Jill Long Thompson, JIm Schellinger, Jon Elrod, Michael Davis, Obama
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This entry was written by and posted on February 25, 2008 at 2:48 pm and filed under HPI Weekly. Bookmark the permalink. Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post.
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